Out-of-options fan favorite outfielder in roster limbo ahead of Pirates Opening Day

Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Joshua Palacios has become a fan favorite since he arrived on the scene last year. His clutch hits and personality make him a very likable player, and one that’s easy to root for. But the Pirates have a tough decision coming up. Palacios is out of options, meaning they will have to designate him for assignment if they want to send him to Triple-A Indianapolis at the end of camp. Should the Pirates take that route, or is there a way Palacios can open the year on the team’s Major League roster?

Let’s first start with Palacios’ upside. The outfielder has some solid under-the-hood, more predictive numbers that are worth considering. Since making his Pirates debut, Palacios has a 91 MPH exit velocity and 8.8% barrel rate, both of which are better than the league average. Despite unimpressive bottom line numbers, he has a .428 xSLG%, .260 xBA, and .323 xwOBA in 342 plate appearances. These are also above-average, and represent a large separation from what is on the back of his baseball card.

For reference, former Pirates All-Star first baseman Josh Bell has almost identical numbers, including a .251 xBA, .427 xSLG%, and .328 xwOBA. He also carries a similar 89.8 MPH exit velocity and a mirror image 8.8% barrel percentage. Even the rates at which Palacios pulls the ball, goes to the opposite field, or hits the ball up the middle are comparable. While Bell hasn’t been able to replicate his peak seasons with the Pirates during the last two years, he hasn’t been awful either, with a .734 OPS, .320 wOBA, and 102 wRC+.

Palacios’ projections put him in a positive light. ZiPS foresees him batting .263/.327/.413 with a .322 wOBA and 104 wRC+. He is projected to go yard nine times in 354 plate appearances with a .150 isolated slugging percentage. Hitting like that would make him an above-average part-time player. Plus, there’s some room for more power, given he’s hit more home runs in a similar amount of plate appearances with the Pirates.

Palacios' numbers at Triple-A were also exceptionally good. Over the last two seasons, he has been batting .327/.407/.581 with a .427 wOBA and 150 wRC+ in 298 plate appearances. Palacios has an ISO over .250 at .254 and has gone yard 13 times. He also carries a 19.8% strikeout rate, along with an 11.1% walk rate. His whiff rate sits at just 25.2%, while he clocks in with a 10% barrel percentage.

Now, here’s the bad news. Despite some decent predictive stats, he’s yet to reach these expectations. Palacios is only a .236/.291/.398 batter with a .299 wOBA and 84 wRC+. He’s run into some home runs, smashing a dozen and carrying a .162 isolated slugging percentage, but he does not walk at a high rate and has just a 6.4% free pass percentage. Palacios’ K% still stands at a solid 19.9% rate. However, it hasn't been enough to offset the rest of his bottom line.

Can Pirates save Joshua Palacios from DFA limbo as Opening Day roster looms?

Palacios’ outfield defense isn’t anything to write home about, but he isn’t bad. He has -2 defensive runs saved, but zero outs above average, and a +0.4 UZR/150 during his MLB career. In 2023, he was in the 87th percentile of arm strength, as his throws averaged 90.8 MPH. While his route running graded out below average, his jump on batted balls in his direction was around average in 2023.

As of right now, the Pirates’ roster has four outfielders, with Oneil Cruz in center field, Bryan Reynolds in right field, and Tommy Pham and Jack Suwinski platooning left field. There have been talks that Suwinski and Reynolds could see some time at first base, but neither has even gotten into a spring training game at the position yet. Suwinski is coming off a rough 2024, but isn’t far removed from a promising 2023 season where he hit 26 home runs with a .793 OPS and 112 wRC+.

The Pirates could get bold with their roster, moving Suwinski to first base full-time until Spencer Horwitz is fully recovered and ramped up for the 2025 season. This would leave Palacios as the fourth/platoon outfielder, giving him another chance to prove himself. If he does well, then Horwitz can either take over at first base for Suwinski, with the latter then going to Triple-A. Or, if Suwinski is doing well himself, he can help offset Nick Gonzales at second base and platoon with him there. However, that would likely mean that Jared Triolo would get sent to Triple-A, or the Pirates would release/DFA Adam Frazier.

There are definitely ways the Pirates can fit Palacios on the roster. However, with no options remaining, he is walking on thin ice. He has to start turning some of the potential he’s shown off since joining the Pirates in the Rule 5 Draft into on-field production. While Palacios is a very fun player to watch and loved by fans, he would benefit the most from a hot start to the season, as it would save him from being DFA’d.