Paul Skenes Cy Young odds give early look into Pirates hype for 2025

Everybody knew Paul Skenes was special the moment he first stepped on a professional mound. Once the Pirates made him the top pick in the 2023 draft and gave him the largest signing bonus in draft history (at the time), the expectations for Skenes were sky-high. And yet, as a rookie, he largely surpassed them.

Major league hitters proved to be no problem for Skenes. Among 126 pitchers who threw at least 100 MLB innings last season, Skenes ranked first in ERA (1.96), fifth in WHIP (0.95), third in FIP (2.44), third in strikeout rate (33.1%), and second in strikeout-to-walk percentage (26.8%).

This led to Skenes winning NL Rookie of the Year, despite not making his MLB debut until May 11. He became the second Pirate ever to win the award (joining Jason Bay in 2004) and the only starting pitcher since integration with at least 130 innings pitched, 150 strikeouts, and an ERA under 2.00 as a rookie.

In addition to winning Rookie of the Year, Skenes also came in third in NL Cy Young voting and landed on some MVP ballots. While he didn't receive any first-place Cy Young votes—Atlanta's Chris Sale won the award unanimously, as Triple Crown winners should—even finishing in the top three despite being a rookie who didn't pitch enough innings to qualify for the ERA title is a remarkable achievement.

If Skenes was good enough to be a Cy Young finalist after just 23 starts and 133 innings pitched, could he find himself winning the award in 2025? Betting markets seem to think so. At books that have opened up odds for the 2025 NL Cy Young winner, Skenes is the favorite, with odds of +300 (in other words, 25%). Those are pretty significant pre-season odds for any player to win any award. It is now consensus that Skenes is one of MLB's very best pitchers.

Paul Skenes NL Cy Young Award odds could bode very well for the Pirates' hopes of returning to postseason play.

The Cy Young Award was first presented in 1956. In its entire history, a Pirate has won only twice: Vern Law in 1960 and Doug Drabek in 1990. Both of those individual achievements were accompanied by significant team success—in 1960, the Bucs beat the heavily favored Yankees in the World Series, and in 1990, the 95-win Pirates won the NL East and took the eventual World Series champions to Game 6 of the NLCS.

Obviously, there's no automatic correlation between a pitcher winning the Cy Young and his team making the playoffs. But Skenes has already demonstrated his immense talent and ability to completely take over games. If he continues to perform as he has over a full season (and if the bullpen stops blowing leads when he pitches), he'll likely end up with more hardware, and the Pirates will be in position to win some more games.