Paul Skenes' season showed why this top prospect should start 2025 with Pirates

Paul Skenes is ending 2024 on one of the highest notes a professional baseball player can end a year on. After the Pirates drafted him first overall and signed him to a record-setting deal in 2023, Skenes impressed in the minor leagues, mowing down pro hitters like they were little leaguers. Skenes then made his MLB debut on May 11 and didn’t look back, posting a 214 ERA+, the highest by a rookie in 20+ starts since the start of 1900, and winning Rookie of the Year.

But by promoting Skenes in May, the Pirates lost out on something huge: theprospect promotion incentive. The delayed arrival wasn’t a choice made entirely on the basis of service time manipulation. Skenes had less than 10 innings pitched in the minor leagues and had yet to fully adapt to a five-man rotation. 

But if the Pirates had promoted Skenes within the first two weeks of Opening Day, they would have received an extra draft pick, and the trepidation clearly cost them. In order for a top prospect to qualify for PPI, they must still have rookie eligibility, be promoted within the first two weeks of the season, and either win Rookie of the Year and/or finish top three in MVP or Cy Young voting within their first three years of service time. They must also rank as a top-100 prospect on two of three lists between MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, and ESPN.

For a team like the Pirates, extra draft picks can be very valuable. But the Pirates have a chance to redeem themselves next season and promote a prospect who could earn them that extra pick in 2026. That top prospect is another right-handed pitcher in Bubba Chandler.

Pirates should promote Bubba Chandler to recoup what they lost in Paul Skenes

The Pirates originally drafted Bubba Chandler in the fourth round of the 2021 draft. Considered one of the best prospects in the draft class, Chandler signed a huge $3 million overslot deal as a two-way player and forwent his commitment to Clemson to play football. Chandler is coming off the best season of his career thus far.

Chandler pitched 119.2 innings between Altoona and Indianapolis, pitching to a 3.07 ERA, 3.10 FIP, and 1.02 WHIP. Opponents couldn’t touch Chandler. He held batters to just a .187 batting average against a 30.9% strikeout rate. Chandler also carried a strong 0.68 HR/9, along with a respectable 8.6% walk rate. 

The top prospect was ultra-dominant at Triple-A, where he had a sub-2.00 ERA (1.83) while striking out over a third of his opponents (34%) across 39.1 IP. Chandler induced a swing-and-miss 33% of the time. However, when opponents made contact, it was rarely good contact, with an 85.3 MPH exit velocity and 3.4% barrel rate.

Chandler isn’t just a consensus top-100 prospect, but one of the best in all of baseball. He meets the requirements for PPI, as MLB Pipeline ranks him as the 15th-best prospect in baseball, while Baseball America currently ranks him as the 21st-best. But does Chandler have a real chance of winning Rookie of the Year next season?

Well, for what it’s worth, Jonathan Mayo of MLB Pipeline certainly thinks so. In a recent article published by Joe Trezza, Mayo, along with Jim Callis, drafted Rookie of the Year candidates for each league. Both Mayo and Callis took Washington Nationals rookie and Skenes’ former LSU teammate Dylan Crews first, but Mayo then took Bubba Chandler with his second pick.

Even if Chandler doesn't win Rookie of the Year, he still gives the Pirates a chance to earn PPI by being a Cy Young finalist. Chandler might be the Pirates' best non-Paul Skenes pitching prospect since Gerrit Cole. His pitch mix, along with his elite athleticism, and his continued improvement at each level of the minor leagues, combine to make him an ultra-talented pitcher. There is a good chance Chandler can be a Cy Young finalist before he hits arbitration.

Plus, unlike Skenes, Chandler has already been stretched out to pitch in a five-man rotation. He has now pitched over 110 innings in two seasons. While the Pirates would still likely manage his workload, given that he has yet to top his innings total from this past year and throws exceptionally hard, it is reasonable to expect 140-160 innings in 2025 from Chandler. For reference, Skenes pitched 129.1 innings between college and the minor leagues in ‘23, then pitched 160.1 innings between Triple-A and the bigs in ‘24.

The Pirates should put Bubba Chandler in their Opening Day rotation for the chance to secure an extra draft pick alone. But they should also do it because they’d have one of the best rotations in baseball. Chandler, along with Skenes, Jared Jones, and Mitch Keller, would be a knockout 1-through-4, and they have plenty of depth to fill out the fifth spot with a quality pitcher. The Pirates have a lot more to gain than lose by bringing up Chandler and slotting him into the Opening Day rotation.