Pirates' 2025 MLB Draft debacle brings back memories of this 2016 selection

The Pittsburgh Pirates selected high school right-hander Angel Cervantes 50th overall with their second-round pick. As of now, it appears that selecting him may not have been a great idea. Cervantes intends to follow through on his commitment to UCLA instead of inking a deal with the Bucs. The last time this happened to the Pirates, not only did it backfire, it completely blew up in their face and ended about as badly as it could have.

In the 2016 MLB Draft, the Pirates took high school left-hander Nick Lodolo with their competitive balance round pick. He was the 41st overall selection and was ranked as a top-100 draft prospect by MLB Pipeline (#85) and Baseball America (#78).

Despite a slot value of $1,576,000, Lodolo stated he would attend Texas Christian University. The Pirates would still get draft compensation, but losing a top-50 pick always hurts. Lodolo then went on to have a successful college career and would re-enter the draft after he posted a 2.36 ERA, 0.98 WHIP, and a 31.3% strikeout percentage during his junior season.

This time around, Lodolo wasn’t just a top-100 draft prospect; he was a top-10 draft prospect. MLB Pipeline and Baseball America both ranked him eighth. Unfortunately for the Pirates, Lodolo wouldn’t just get taken off the board before they were on the clock with the 19th pick. He was taken seventh by the division-rival Cincinnati Reds. Lodolo would quickly become one of the Reds’ best young talents and went into 2022 as a consensus top-50 prospect.

Pirates better hope Angel Cervantes isn't a repeat of Nick Lodolo

While there have definitely been some bumps in the road, Lodolo has proven to be a solid starting pitcher for the Reds since making his debut in 2022. He owns a 4.05 ERA, an identical FIP, and a WHIP clocking in at 1.21 across 375. 2/3 innings of work. The southpaw has struck out just over a quarter of batters with a 25.8% K%, with a strong 6.8% walk rate. His 1.21 HR/9 isn’t great, but considering he plays half of his games in Great American Ballpark, more home runs than usual should be expected. Lodolo is in the midst of a breakout campaign, as he’s already reached career-highs in innings pitched (122.2), fWAR (2.1), bWAR (3.9), while carrying a 3.08 ERA, and 4.6% walk rate. The only four other qualified pitchers have a lower walk rate than Lodolo does.

To add insult to injury, the compensation pick the Pirates received for not signing Lodolo never amounted to much. The Pirates selected Steven Jennings with the 42nd overall pick in the 2017 draft. While Jennings flashed some potential in the low levels of the minor leagues, he has yet to appear in the Major Leagues, and has since bounced around the Pirates', New York Yankees', and Texas Rangers' minor league systems.

Lodolo provides a cautionary tale of what could happen now. Lodolo not signing, then getting drafted, and developing into a solid Major League pitcher for a division rival while the compensation pick never amounted to anything is a nightmare scenario. Hopefully, for the Pirates' sake, they don't re-live that with Cervantes.