Pirates can turn Paul Skenes' down year into a long term advantage

Recently, Paul Skenes has made it a habit of basically alternating solid starts with complete duds. Just when it looks like he's getting back on track, as he did with 5 1/3 scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Angels on September 6 and seven innings of two-run ball against the Chicago Cubs on September 12, he'll give the Pittsburgh Pirates a meltdown outing, as he did during his September 18 start against the Kansas City Royals.

It's been frustrating, to say the least, and while it's not the primary reason why the Pirates have fallen out of playoff contention, it's been a contributing factor.

There are several theories as to what is wrong with the Pittsburgh ace. Command has been an unusual bugaboo. But whether that's a mechanical issue, a mental issue, or some combination of the two remains to be seen.

For all the handwringing and consternation, there's a simple fact that needs to be brought to the forefront. For as bad as Skenes has been at points this season, he still has a 3.91 ERA this year. We'd be pegging most 24-year-olds as future All-Stars with production like that. But after back-to-back sub-2.00 ERA campaigns, it feels like a major letdown.

Paul Skenes struggles could present the Pirates with a golden opportunity

After last year's Cy Young nod and record-setting pre-arbitration bonus, it seemed like sooner rather than later the financial reality would come and smack the Pirates in the face. This isn't just about Pittsburgh being able to secure an extension, either.

After Tarik Skubal broke the mold with an unheard of $32 million arbitration award, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that Skenes would soon price himself out of what Pittsburgh was comfortable paying, and a trade would eventually be on the horizon. Some even speculated that the club could get a jump on things and deal the ace right-hander before things got out of hand, leveraging his team control to garner an even larger return.

But now, it seems less certain that things will get too expensive that quickly. At the same time, one does not throw 320 2/3 innings with a 1.96 ERA by accident, as Skenes has done over his first two big league seasons. There's a very good shot that, in the quiet of the offseason, he's able to correct whatever mechanical or mental disconnect is plaguing him.

Skenes is arbitration-eligible for the first time this offseason, and if he proves in 2027 that this is nothing more than a blip on the radar, he'll be right back on track for big arbitration numbers later on in the process, as well as a record-setting contract.

Before that happens, the Pirates should come to him with a reasonable extension in hand. Until Skenes proves that he's that same top-level ace over a sustatined period of time, he can't be confident that he's going to receive those massive windfalls. At the same time, there's always the chance that injury or even worse performance could derail his financial financial future.

Pittsburgh could offer him some financial security, but at the same time, capitalize on this year's developments to secure him at a more team-friendly rate. By buying out his arbitration years, the organization would save itself from the potential of a big balloon payment in the last year they hold control over him, and by buying out a couple of free-agent years, it would be paying market value with 2026's dud baked in to lower the price.

There's a bit of risk on either side, but the Pirates would have the upperhand here. The likelihood is that Skenes rebounds, and the gamble pays off big time, but even if he doesn't, locking up a starting pitcher who posts an ERA in the high-3s isn't necessarily a bad thing. There's a small window to get this done, and it would behoove the club to start talking to Skenes about his long-term future now, before it's too late.

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