Pirates could pull an 'A.J. Burnett 2.0' trade with this Yankees pitcher

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ rotation is led by a one-through-three of Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jared Jones. Even after trading Luis Ortiz, they still have plenty of options to fill out the rest of the starting five. Johan Oviedo will return next year, and they also have prospects like Mike Burrows and Braxton Ashcraft on the 40-man roster. Bailey Falter was a solid back-of-the-rotation arm in 2024, and the Bucs have a multitude of top prospects approaching the big leagues, like Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler.

But if the Pirates want to add a real starter (and not have to stretch Caleb Ferguson out), they could take on a pitcher the New York Yankees are looking to shed the contract of. The Yankees signed veteran right-hander Marcus Stroman after the 2023 season to a two-year contract with a third-year vesting option. But after an uninspiring 2024, the Yanks are looking to try and get rid of his remaining salary.

Stroman posted an unimpressive 4.31 ERA, 4.62 FIP, and 1.47 WHIP across 154.2 innings pitched. Stroman has never been a huge strikeout pitcher, but his 16.7% K% was a career-low rate. However, his 8.9% walk rate and 1.11 HR/9 were roughly league average. The right-hander held opponents to just a 6.7% barrel rate as well, which was in the top 70th percentile of pitchers in 2024.

Stroman’s season wasn’t good, but for what it’s worth, his stuff looked better after the All-Star break. His 5.98 ERA doesn’t paint the entire picture, as he only walked 5.7% of opponents with a 0.72 HR/9. He still was not striking out many batters, with a 15.7% K%, but had an excellent 5.6% barrel percentage. Stroman had a 4.36 SIERA and 3.85 xFIP. Both stats are similar to what he put up in 2019 through 2023 at 4.10 and 3.72, respectively. His ERA was inflated by an insanely high .403 batting average on balls in play, despite inducing weak contact at an above-average rate with a GB% approaching 50% at 47.8%.

Stroman also put up some drastic home/away splits. At Yankee Stadium, he had a 5.31 ERA, 4.86 FIP, and 1.42 WHIP. When he was on the road, Stroman put up a 3.09 ERA, 4.34 FIP, and 1.53 WHIP. He had a 3.91 xFIP at home, caused by a huge HR:FB ratio of 19.7%. Given that Yankee Stadium is the third most homer-friendly park, while PNC Park is the third least home run-friendly park, Stroman could definitely see an improvement in this department.

Why Marcus Stroman could bounce back after potential Yankees-Pirates trade

It’s also not as if Stroman wasn’t a quality pitcher in recent seasons. From 2019 through 2023, he averaged 160 innings and +3.0 bWAR a season and put up an ERA+ of 108 or better each year. He’s been a durable pitcher, making at least 25 starts in seven of his eight most recent seasons.

The Pirates could pull something similar to what they did years ago with A.J. Burnett to get a deal done here. The situations are almost identical. Like Stroman, the Yankees wanted to get rid of Burnett’s remaining contract. Burnett had an even worse ERA, FIP, and WHIP in 2011 than Stroman had in 2024. Burnett did edge Stroman out in ERA estimators like xFIP and SIERA, but Stroman was solid in both stats in the second half of the 2024 season.

The contracts are very similar as well. Burnett was still owed $33 million over two years when the Pirates acquired him. Stroman's option for 2026 has vested, but it will become a player option if he reaches 140 innings in 2025. If he then opts in, he will be owed $36.5 million over the next two years. 2012 was Burnett’s first season in Pittsburgh, which was his age-35 season. Next year will be Stroman’s age-34 season.

The Pirates did not have to give up much to get Burnett, either. They sent the Yankees two minor leaguers. One, Exicardo Cayones, never made the Major Leagues. The other, Diego Moreno, played just nine Major League games. Neither were considered top prospects in the Pirates’ system at the time, nor did they become top prospects during their time in affiliated ball.

The Pirates ended up taking on about 40% of Burnett’s remaining contract. If the Pirates took on 40% of what Stroman is owed, they would only be taking on about $7.4 million for next year. Considering what back-of-the-rotation arms are making, less than $10 million would be a steal. If the Pirates can pull a Burnett 2.0 trade with the Yankees, they should seriously consider it. Stroman would likely benefit from a move away from Yankee Stadium, and the Pirates could be getting a solid pitcher for less than $10 million.