Pirates’ Esmerlyn Valdez just put the NL Rookie of the Year field on notice

Heading into the 2026 season, the betting odds favored a Pittsburgh Pirates youngster taking home the National League Rookie of the Year honors. If it wasn't Konnor Griffin, then it seemed as if Bubba Chandler had a more-than-decent shot at taking home the hardware.

Now, though, it's a different Pirates rookie making his case. Though he got off to a late start, Esmerlyn Valdez is coming on strong in the race.

Valdez was never a top-100 prospect and ranks No. 9 on the Pirates' top 30 list per MLB Pipeline, but as the 22-year-old continues on and lays waste to pitchers across the board, it's becoming clearer and clearer that he's been woefully underrated.

It's been 28 games and 105 plate appearances for the Dominican native as he rolled into the All-Star break with a .309/.371/.713 line and 10 homers. To say it's been a sizzling introduction to the majors would be an understatement.

Some might say that the sample is relatively small, and to an extent, they're right. Valdez isn't going to continue to slug a Barry Bonds-esque .713. He has too much swing and miss in his game to hit .309. There will be a regression to the mean. At the same time, the underlying data suggests that the kid is the real deal.

Valdez hits balls hard, and he does it often. He also doesn't chase all that often out of the zone. With a few tweaks, he can cut down his whiff rate to a more manageable level, and the strikeouts will fall as well.

He's also got a flair for the dramatic while coming through in the clutch, making MLB history by collecting four go-ahead hits, three go-ahead homers, and one go-ahead grand slam during the July 11 doubleheader against the rival Milwaukee Brewers.

JJ Wetherholt is still the NL Rookie of the Year favorite, but Esmerlyn Valdez could give him a run for his money

St. Louis Cardinals phenom JJ Wetherholt has become the runaway favorite for the NL Rookie of the Year trophy. The young second baseman has posted 3.5 fWAR at the All-Star break, more than double the next closest rookie, which is a three-way tie at 1.7 between TJ Rumfield, Sal Stewart, and Carson Benge.

He's been so good that the Cardinals bestowed an eight-year, $112.5 million extension upon him. Wehtherholt has gotten it done with a well-rounded game, slashing .259/.356/.399 with 13 homers, nine stolen bases, 16 outs above average, and 11 defensive runs saved through 90 games.

With that said, in just 28 games, Valdez has already compiled 1.4 fWAR over his 28 contests. If both players keep pace and played 150 contests, Valdez would blow Wetherholt out of the water. That won't happen, of course.

But Valdez might have a chance, no matter how slim. He has the kind of glitzy numbers that will raise debate right now, but he'll need to keep it up over the course of the second half. If he does, the Pirates gem could force some hard decisions come awards time. It's not likely that he pulls off the upset, but it is possible.

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