Pirates fans are skeptical of MLB.com's bold Oneil Cruz prediction for 2026

By tools alone, Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Oneil Cruz is one of the most talented players in the game. It's easy to be enamored by his six-foot-seven frame. No one would blame you for being tantalized by what his 100th percentile bat speed could produce. His 29.2 feet per second sprint speed isn't just incredible for a man of his size; it's simply incredible, full stop.

You don't have to squint much to see a five-tool player. A guy with Cruz's physical gifts could be an MVP candidate. Pirates fans know better. They've watched the 27-year-old for years now, waiting for his breakout, only to receive a career-worst .200/.298/.378 line last season.

So when MLB.com named Cruz a dark horse candidate to take home the NL MVP, many fans chuckled. Though many would be lying if they said there wasn't a semblance of hope buried deep, they've been burned too many times to truly believe.

Oneil Cruz being named a dark horse NL MVP candidate feels like a Pirates fan's wildest dream

As hard as Cruz swings the bat, there was an awful lot of refinement needed in his game in 2025, ranging from better performance against fastballs to being more aggressive early in the count — despite the risk of the strikeout from a hitter who K'd at a 32% clip — to pulling more fly balls. It just goes to show you, it takes a lot more than athletic skill to hit a baseball.

You can say the same about performance in the field. For as fast as Cruz is and for as much of a cannon as he possesses, his -14 defensive runs saved was the third-worst mark among all big league center fielders in 2025.

But to his credit, Cruz put in work over the offseason. He trained with former Platinum Glove winner Kevin Kiermaier to improve his defense, and left the former big leaguer impressed.

He looked transformed at the plate when spring training first opened, and it was more than just the new haircut. Cruz hit .538/.600/.846 with a homer and three steals in five spring training games before leaving for the World Baseball Classic. He's been even more dominant with Team Dominican Republic.

It's the kind of stuff that makes you start to dream. If he can make enough contact, the homers will come in bunches. If he can get on base at a reasonable clip, he can terrorize opposing pitchers and catchers. If he can just make the right reads off the bat, he has the speed and athleticism to win a Gold Glove.

Think about it this way: Cruz got on base at a sub-.300 clip last season and still led the NL in stolen bases. He batted just .200, but still pumped 20 balls out of the yard. If things just click, few others in the game have the same caliber of raw talent.

Maybe this hot preseason action is the precursor to something big. Maybe not. You can't put too much stock into small samples, and managing your own expectations is important. After all, Cruz has been around long enough that things could have (and maybe should have) come together already. But maybe, just maybe, 2026 will be his year. Imagine what that would mean for the Pirates.