Pirates had one of baseball's best hidden advantages and still blew it

Though the Pittsburgh Pirates have gotten hot at the start of September, their postseason window is closing. A wildly competitive NL Wild Card picture has them on the outside looking in, and the Bucs really have no one but themselves to blame after going 12-15 during August.

They're obviously an improved squad, vastly outproducing the 2025 team's offensive output and ranking sixth in starting pitcher fWAR this year. But they're also playing in one of the most competitive divisions in baseball, and that improved offense has slipped dramatically in the second half.

What's truly frustrating, though, isn't the second-half swoon or the missed opportunities. It's that the Bucs are somehow finding a way to waste their good fortune, as they currently rank as one of the best teams in the league in one-run games.

Pirates fumbling their dominance in one-run games could prove to haunt them in the future

It's obviously a skill to win close games in baseball, and it's a testament that the Pirates have been one of the best at doing so in 2026. There's a reason that playoff-caliber teams like the Phillies, Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs can all be found in the top-10 of those with the best record in one-run contests this year.

But it's also worth noting that sub-.500 squads like the Rangers and Reds have been even better than the Bucs in that regard. More than anything, luck is required to win in these ultra-tight affairs.

What's truly remarkable about that stat is the fact that the Pirates' bullpen (at least in the first half) was borderline atrocious. Prior to the All-Star break, this relief corps ranked 23rd in ERA, blowing the fourth-most saves in the league. Winning one-run games is already a fickle skill; doing so with a bullpen that struggles that badly to protect leads is nothing short of miraculous.

The bullpen has been better in the second half (eighth-best ERA) and should continue to improve in 2027 with Lake Bachar, Camilo Doval, and Luke Weaver all set to reprise their roles after being acquired at the trade deadline. But even a sturdier group of high-leverage relievers doesn't suddenly guarantee the good luck you need to win a ton of one-run contests. That requires both an ample amount of clutch hitting from your side, as well as a serious lack of it from your opponents.

In other words, the Pirates should be well-equipped to keep winning these close games in the future, but there's no guarantee that they actually will. If a few less bounces go their way next year, we may come to rue their inability to make their good luck count this season.

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