Pirates have Paul Skenes motivation to deviate from usual Draft strategy with No. 5 pick

Speaking candidly, the Pirates have a pretty specific draft strategy that seems to work for them as their recent first-round history reads like a showcase for premium athletes and position players — tools, projection, upside you develop over time. But MLB’s updated mock draft after the Draft Combine has them doing something different at No. 5: taking a college pitcher.

A very specific kind of college pitcher, at that. His name is Jackson Flora, and he's one of the most compelling arms to come through UC Santa Barbara since the Gauchos started becoming what they are — a legitimate pitching factory that has produced Dillon Tate, Shane Bieber, and last year's second-overall pick Tyler Bremner.

Flora is the consensus top pitcher in the 2026 class, and if he falls to Pittsburgh, the argument for taking him is hard to deny.

Jackson Flora's fastball changes the conversation

I'll be direct about why Flora interests me specifically, because this isn't just a scouting report exercise — I drafted him in my fantasy dynasty league, and I did it because of one pitch.

Flora's fastball is genuinely different. He sits mid-to-upper 90s and touches 100-101 mph regularly, but the velocity is almost secondary to the geometry of how it works. He operates from a flat approach angle — with a 6.5 extension. The ball rides up in the zone and keeps riding.

And here's the part that makes it truly special: there's natural cut on the pitch, a late leftward movement that takes it away from right-handed hitters after it's already ridden up. Hitters aren't just swinging late. They're swinging under a pitch that is also moving horizontally away from them, that their brain is telling them will naturally go the other direction.

I've thrown with and watched thousands of pitchers throughout my life, and that's a rare shape. The spin rates back it up — he's north of 2,500 rpm, 18-20+ inches of induced vertical break, with 0, and even negative horizontal movement. These are the numbers you see on elite major-league fastballs. On a 21-year-old college arm with room to add strength to a 6'5'', 205-pound frame, they're something else entirely.

Flora described his own mechanics in a “Pitching Ninja” (Rob Friedman) interview, and the way he talks about them tells you something important: he understands what he's doing and why.

Jackson Flora would help a Pirates pitching staff built to last

Here's the business case, and it connects directly to Paul Skenes and company. The Pirates' competitive window is open now, but it's not permanent, and Ben Cherington knows it. The organization's pitching depth is genuinely impressive — Seth Hernandez is a top-100 prospect (and climbing fast) on his way up, Mitch Keller has been anchoring the rotation for years, and Bubba Chandler has shown real flashes. But, Jared Jones has been inconsistent and Keller and Skenes won't be in Pittsburgh forever either.

Adding Flora to that pipeline doesn't just give the Pirates another arm. It gives them a succession plan. A quick-moving college pitcher with Flora's stuff could realistically reach the major leagues within two years, and MLB Pipeline's mock draft specifically cited his timeline aligning with Pittsburgh's competitive window. UC Santa Barbara's pitchers have consistently moved fast in professional ball, and Flora is likely better than anyone they've produced.

The fantasy is a real possibility too — Flora in the rotation behind Skenes, both of them working the top of a staff that's built to compete — isn't a far-fetched projection. It's a reasonable two-to-three-year timeline for an organization that develops pitchers as well as anyone in the sport. A rotation with Skenes, Flora, Hernandez, Chandler, and Jones becomes very realistic and could be scary.

Honest caveats on Jackson Flora

No scouting report is complete without them, and Flora's profile has legitimate questions. His walk rate crept up in 2026 — from 5.5% as a sophomore to 8.8% as a junior, still average but a direction worth monitoring.

Scouts note that his breaking ball execution and command come and go, and there's a school of thought that his fastball's shape could face more pressure against professional hitters who are better at laying off pitches up in the zone. The changeup, which he's prioritized developing this year, is real but still new.

One scout called Flora "more premium ingredient than a ready-made player." and that's probably accurate. But I'd add this from a pitcher's perspective: the ingredients being premium is the whole point. The development of a command profile, the refinement of breaking ball execution, the deepening feel for sequencing — those are coachable. A flat approach angle and 2,500 rpm spin rates and nearly seven feet of extension are not. You either have that ability to spin it like that or you don't.

Will Pirates pull the trigger?

The Pirates don't usually draft this way, but most years, a pitcher like Flora doesn't fall to No. 5 either. If the board breaks the way a lot of mock drafts project it might, Pittsburgh will have a chance to add the best arm in the college game to an organization built around pitching depth and a rotation anchored by the best pitcher in baseball.

You don't pass on that because you usually “draft differently”. You adjust the strategy when the value demands it. And then you put Flora and Skenes in the same rotation and let the rest of baseball worry about it.

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