Pirates in last place in NL Central but somehow still ahead where it counts

Even after a shutout loss to the Arizona Diamondbacks on May 5, the Pittsburgh Pirates are sitting pretty at 19-17 with a +22 run differential. Or, at least they would be if they didn't play in the literal best division in baseball this decade.

It's certainly not the Pirates' fault that the NL Central is so good this year. Save for a four-game sweep at the hands of the St. Louis Cardinals at the end of April, they've won every series against division opponents this year, including a recent sweep of the Cincinnati Reds.

In other words, sitting in last place among this quintet isn't a sign of poor quality; the Pirates' run differential ranks fifth in the NL this year, and the two teams directly ahead of them (the Milwaukee Brewers and Chicago Cubs) are also in the Central. It's just a cruel twist of fate that every member of the division is defying expectations at the same time.

Nevertheless, the standings in early May hardly ever reflect the leaderboards in September. FanGraphs is still buying in on the Bucs' upside, continuing to project them for a second-place finish with playoff odds still hovering over 50%.

Pirates have prime opportunity to make push up NL Central standings in May

Something else working in the Pirates' favor is their upcoming schedule. They're already working a winning record against the Reds (5-1), Brewers (2-1), and Cubs (2-1), and they'll get a shot at revenge against the Redbirds later this month. Head-to-head tiebreakers rarely come into play, but they're a really nice insurance policy to have when surrounded by so many competitive rivals.

Likewise, the rest of May looks like a favorable chance for Pittsburgh to bust out of the divisional cellar. After this series in Arizona, they'll draw a trio of disappointing teams (the Giants, Rockies, and Phillies) before that matchup in St. Louis. Likewise, they'll end the month against another pair of middling foes (the Blue Jays and Twins) sandwiched around an all-important four-game set vs. the Cubs.

That stretch will give way to a far more brutal schedule in June and July, but good teams win lots of game against bad teams in order to survive after treading water against a host of competitors. Thanks to an absurdly solid foundation — they rank top 10 in the league in both ERA and runs scored — the Pirates should have no trouble proving the playoff prognosticators right over the coming month.

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