Pirates’ latest signing could (and should?) result in a closer shakeup

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ most recent addition could affect the team's closer depth chart in 2026. With the signing of Gregory Soto during this year's Winter Meetings, the Pirates are bringing in a relief pitcher with experience in a closer role, and someone whose best seasons have come as a ninth-inning arm. As of right now, the closer role should be Dennis Santana’s to lose, and Soto’s to win.

Gregory Soto’s 4.18 ERA in 2025 and 4.53 ERA in 2024 may not look good on the surface, but this is a reliever we're talking about here, and ERA is pretty much the last stat you want to use to evaluate how one will perform in the future. Soto regularly gets strikeouts at an above-average rate, and sent just over a quarter of his opponents down on strike three in 2025 (25.1%, to be exact). While Soto previously struggled with walks, he put up a career-low 8.6% BB% this past season. Soto has typically been good at limiting quality contact and was great at it this year, with a 4% barrel rate (97th percentile), resulting in a 0.60 HR/9 ratio. Despite his poor ERA, he had a career-low 3.42 FIP and 3.44 SIERA. Soto is absolutely dominant vs. lefty batters, holding them to a career .600 OPS and .549 mark in 2025.

Two of Soto’s best seasons were as the Detroit Tigers’ closer. Between 2021 and 2022, Soto owned a 3.34 ERA, 3.88 FIP, and 1.36 WHIP while saving 48 games. He was still striking out a healthy amount of batters with a 25.2% K%, and only had a 0.65 HR/9 ratio with a 6.5% barrel rate. However, he struggled much more with walks, posting a BB% of 13.7%.

Gregory Soto can surpass Dennis Santana as Pirates' closer

Now, on the surface, Santana’s 2.18 ERA, 3.21 FIP, and 0.87 WHIP are far from bad. How can the Pirates not guarantee him the ninth inning role after he put up numbers up like that? Well, let’s dig a bit deeper than the surface numbers. He may have had a strong 6.3% walk rate, but only a league-average 22.2% strikeout rate. Santana’s 0.64 HR/9 ratio is excellent, but he was not good at limiting hard contact, with an 89 MPH exit velocity and 10.5% barrel rate. That sort of exit velocity and barrel rate also should not result in a .211 batting average on balls in play.

It’s even worse once you compare it to his 2024 numbers with the Pirates. Santana’s 2.44 ERA was backed up by a 29.1% strikeout rate and a 6.4% walk rate. His 0.41 HR/9 ratio and .241 batting average on balls in play were a lot more sustainable once you consider how elite he was at limiting hard contact. He had an 84.5 MPH exit velocity and 1.9% barrel rate. Santana had the fifth-lowest exit velocity and the second-lowest barrel percentage among qualified relievers.

It’s not just the declining peripherals between 2024 and 2025 that should make the Pirates give Soto a chance at the closer role over Santana. Soto has closer-material stuff. Soto has a career 113 Stuff+ with a 116 mark in 2025, the 10th-best among qualified left-handed relievers last season. Santana had a 103 Stuff+ during his time in Pittsburgh in 2024, and only a 97 mark in 2025.

The one thing that Santana did much better than Soto in 2025 was getting batters to chase outside the zone. Santana was in the 96th percentile of chase% at 34.6%. However, it’s not as if Soto wasn’t good at getting swings outside the zone, with a 31.5% chase rate that sat in the 83rd percentile. Plus, Soto made up for it with a better whiff rate at 29.9%, compared to Santana at 27.3%.

The Pirates can’t bank on Santana to be as good as he was in 2025 unless he starts getting his peripherals back up to where they were in 2024. He should not be guaranteed the ninth inning role going into 2026, especially now that they brought in Soto, who has experience in a closer role. Hopefully, the Pirates make the right choice and give Soto a real opportunity to take the ninth inning role.