Pirates' marquee trade deadline addition still has one glaring flaw amid hot streak

The Pittsburgh Pirates acquired catching prospect Rafael Flores as the headliner in the David Bednar deal, and he's arguably the best prospect they acquired at the deadline. Flores crushed Double-A pitching earlier this year before getting promoted to the Yankees’ Triple-A affiliate. He only played in 10 games at the level, putting up roughly league-average production, before he was sent to the Pirates. Since then, Flores has hit well, but there is still one glaring flaw in his game that cannot be overlooked.

In his first 94 plate appearances at Indianapolis, Flores has a strong .291/.383/.468 triple-slash. He has already hit three home runs and is displaying a ton of raw power. His barrel rate clocks in at 14.8%. Flores is also drawing walks at a decent rate, with an 11.7% BB%. That all builds to a .379 wOBA and 126 wRC+. Even an initial glance under the hood looks fine. In addition to an elite barrel rate, Flores has a solid .340 xwOBA, as well as a .440 xSLG%. Based on his quality of contact, most statistics project he'll hit for a good deal of power.

But even while Flores’ numbers look strong, there is still a massive issue in his game. He still has trouble making contact often enough for those expected statistics to manifest in reality. Flores has a 37.6% whiff rate, leading to a 28.7% strikeout percentage. Swinging and missing at that high a rate at Triple-A is very worrying.

For reference, Baseball Savant began tracking Statcast data in the minor leagues in 2021. There have been 46 batters with a whiff rate of at least 35% at Triple-A in at least 400 plate appearances. Minnesota Twins outfielder Matt Wallner is the only one to put up an above-average OPS+ in at least 200 Major League plate appearances (133 OPS+ over 901 PA). The next closest is Griffin Conine, with a 115 OPS+, but in only 160 PAs.

Rafael Flores' strikeout worries may prevent Pirates prospect from ever hitting big time

That doesn’t automatically mean he can’t or won’t improve, but his hitting is his carrying ability. Neither MLB Pipeline nor Baseball America projects Flores’ hit tool as average. Pipeline puts it at a fringy level, grading it at a 45. Meanwhile, Baseball America is even less optimistic, placing Flores at a 40. BA does give him above-average power potential, though. According to their 20-80 measurables, a player with a 40-grade hit tool and a 55-grade power tool is projected to be a .235-.245 hitter with 23-27 homers. That will play, especially if Flores can stick behind the dish, but that’s a huge question mark, too. Flores projects as a below-average defender with a mediocre arm, and has seen an ample amount of time at first base throughout his career.

On the surface, Flores’ bat looks like it is coming around at Indy. It’s a small sample size, sure, but his initial month with his new team looks decent. However, his bottom line doesn’t show his biggest weakness. A whiff rate that high is a massive red flag. Flores needs to cut that down if he wants to have success in the Major Leagues, as that is something that could easily be exploited by pitchers at the highest level of the sport. The Pirates better get him in check, as Flores was the highest-ranked prospect they acquired at the 2025 deadline.