Pirates might get very lucky with 2026 MLB Draft position thanks to new lottery rules

The Pirates didn’t exactly stumble into a rebuild this year, but they did crash into a reality check. The win-loss column wasn’t kind, the offense cold most of the time, and the club spent September taking notes on what has to change in 2026. Yet as the dust settles, there’s a legitimate silver lining peeking through the fog: the MLB Draft Lottery. Thanks to the still-new system and a few well-timed disqualifications elsewhere, Pittsburgh could find itself drafting much earlier than its record alone would suggest — without having to bottom out to get there.

That’s the twist of the current CBA era. The lottery flattens the board just enough to make hope feel rational for any non-postseason team, and the Pirates happen to be in the sweet spot. They didn’t “race” to the bottom, but they also didn’t play themselves out of favorable odds.

New draft lottery math and details put the Pirates in play for a premium 2026 pick

Here’s the scaffolding. MLB determines the top six selections via a lottery among the 18 non-playoff teams, with odds decreasing as records improve. The three worst records share the same top chance at No. 1, and once those first six slots are drawn, the rest of the non-postseason teams fall in line by inverse order of their records. Playoff clubs then slot in based on when they were eliminated and their revenue-sharing status.

Importantly, teams that paid into revenue sharing (“payors”) and any club that already received a lottery pick the year prior face limits — no top-six pick in consecutive drafts so they can’t camp out at the top year after year.

Those restrictions matter this winter. The Colorado Rockies, Washington Nationals, and Los Angeles Angels are ineligible for top-six consideration this time around, which effectively clears three chairs at the front of the room. For a Pirates club that finished 71–91, behind the White Sox (60–102) and Twins (70–92) among eligible teams, that’s a tangible bump. Fewer heavy-odds rivals in the drawing means a cleaner lane for Pittsburgh to leap into the top tier, or at minimum to sit higher on the board.

Pittsburgh’s recent drafting and development track record has been a quiet engine for the entire organization. Paul Skenes arrived like a ready-made ace. Jared Jones’s trajectory suggested frontline potential before 2025 slipped away due to injury, with a partial 2026 delay expected. Bubba Chandler received his opportunity late in 2025 and is trending to break camp in the 2026 rotation. Add another premium amateur talent to that foundation — whether it’s a polished college bat to lengthen the lineup or a high-ceiling arm to deepen run-prevention, and you’re not just stockpiling prospects; you’re building a sustainable core that staggers arrivals and keeps the window propped open.

The beauty of where the Pirates sit is that they can benefit from the lottery without the cultural cost of intentional freefall. The lottery rewards patience, competence, and, yes, a little luck. Pittsburgh has already shown the first two in recent drafts and on the player-dev side; the third is now up to the draw. If the balls break their way, a top-six selection in 2026 becomes an accelerant for the franchise with the next wave lining up behind them.

The Pirates don’t need a teardown to get a franchise-shifting pick anymore. The combination of flattened odds, eligibility limits that take a few competitors off the board, and Pittsburgh’s own 71–91 finish gives this front office a rare opportunity to keep developing, and possibly add a future marquee talent in July.