Pirates might have dodged a long-term disaster by dealing Luis Ortiz

There are plenty of ways to take in the package the Pirates sent to acquire Spencer Horwitz from the Guardians. Despite the power upside of the slugger they imported, some fans fervently believe that Pittsburgh overpaid for the first baseman by sending three pitchers to Cleveland.

One of the arms that was involved in the deal was Luis Ortiz, a homegrown prospect that broke out in 2024, emerging as a potential arm in the Pirates' starting rotation for 2025. That season added a lot of value to his name, as he is currently 25 years old and will not be a free agent until after the 2028 season.

Although that all looks promising, the Pirates might have made the right decision in moving on him from him this early. Ortiz possesses some major red flags that show signs pointing towards a regression in 2025.

Pirates may have saved themselves by trading Luis Ortiz before a potential regression.

Last season, Ortiz broke out, tossing 135.2 innings and posting an earned run average (ERA) of 3.32, along with a FIP of 4.25. Additionally, he struck out 107 opponents, allowing an opposing batting average of .216 and a walk rate of 7.6% to generate a WHIP of 1.11.

Those numbers are actually excellent, but Statcast metrics show that he got lucky in 2024. His expected ERA was much higher at 4.31, his expected FIP reached 4.59, and his expected opponent batting average touched .240. Opponents had a barrel rate of 8.8% and his opponents average exit velocity was at 89 miles per hour. Both of which are below league average.

His pitches have also not been great either, generating a whiff rate of just 21%, a chase rate of only 24.5%, and strikeout percentage of 19.2%, all of which rank in the bottom 20% of the entire league.

Although 2024 was a very solid season for Ortiz, he got hit hard and gave up a lot of contact. It did work out in the end, resulting in solid numbers at the finish line, but if that trend continues, he could experience a massive decline in 2025. All signs indicate that as a real possibility, and the Pirates luckily got their future at first base in exchange for him while his value was high.