Pirates' Mitch Keller market continues to shrink after Blue Jays' blockbuster signing

The Pittsburgh Pirates likely lost one potential trade partner for Mitch Keller when the division-rival Cardinals shipped Sonny Gray to Boston. It appears that another logical landing spot is also off the table.

In what marked the first nine-figure free-agent splash of the offseason, the Toronto Blue Jays swooped in out of nowhere and landed ace Dylan Cease. The right-hander will receive a seven-year, $210 million contract from the defending American League champions.

Toronto was always expected to add another starting pitcher to a rotation that is primed to feature veteran stalwarts Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, and Jose Berrios, along with rookie phenom Trey Yesavage. Given Ben Cherington's history with Toronto (he worked in player development with the Blue Jays before coming to Pittsburgh), this pairing made sense. But with Cease now in the fold, the Pirates will likely need to look elsewhere if they are still seeking a taker for Keller.

Trade talks surrounding Keller have been pretty loud for the last year, and especially since the trade deadline. The Pirates offloaded Ke'Bryan Hayes, David Bednar, and Bailey Falter at the deadline, all of whom were tied to the organization beyond the 2025 campaign. With Keller earning a much higher salary than all of those players, and with the team's offense lagging far behind its pitching staff, there's been plenty of speculation about the Pirates moving Keller and reinvesting that money into a bat or two.

The Pirates are running out of trade destinations for Mitch Keller

Keller signed a five-year, $77 million extension with the Pirates in spring training 2024, and is still owed $54.5 million through the 2028 season, including $16.5 million in 2026. It's not that he isn't worth his deal — he's started at least 29 games in four consecutive seasons, posting a 4.15 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, and 3.94 FIP in that span while striking out 664 batters in 707 2/3 innings. A pitcher of Keller's age (he turns 30 in April) with that kind of track record would be paid handsomely on the open market.

But with Paul Skenes, Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones, Braxton Ashcraft, Mike Burrows, Johan Oviedo, and others in the mix, the Pirates have a full complement of starting pitchers even without Keller. The expectation for a while now has been that the team could trade him for a young bat or two while also using the money saved to grab another bat in free agency.

But it hasn't played out that way. And with the Red Sox and Blue Jays both addressing their starting pitching needs in other ways, the list of teams that could take on Keller's salary while providing the Pirates with a worthwhile return is dwindling. The Angels, Mets, Orioles, and Padres may be the best remaining fits.

At this point, the Pirates may be best served just holding on to him. He provides stability that they haven't seen from any of their young starters (aside from Skenes), and if it's true that the Pirates actually have some money to spend, then a Keller trade may not be necessary anyway. Maybe that's the route they go if they're serious about taking the next step in 2026.