Pirates must learn from these baseball cautionary tales to save Paul Skenes era

The Pittsburgh Pirates struggled with finding consistent hitting in 2024. They made some changes, but as many pointed out before this season, adding a few new hitting coaches and one truly decent bat in Spencer Horwitz wasn't going to be enough. Entering Wednesday, the Pirates ranked in the bottom five in the league in OPS, wOBA, and wRC+. They had 194 runs scored, while the Colorado Rockies, a team who is on pace to completely shatter the single-season loss record, scored 193 runs during the same time period.

The good hitters in the Pirates' lineup aren't getting challenged like they should because there are almost constantly at least three automatic outs in the lineup. This isn't just a massive disservice to the hitters who can consistently get it done, but it's been an even bigger kick in the teeth to the Pirates' starting pitchers.

Mitch Keller has a 3.73 ERA/112 ERA+ and 3.20 FIP, but a 1-7 record. That is a 12.5% win percentage. There has never been a pitcher with a W% below 15% and an ERA+ of at least 110 in 30+ starts. That's bad, but it's nothing compared to Paul Skenes, who has a 4-6 record, a 2.05 ERA, 203 ERA+, and leads the league in WHIP. No pitcher has ever had more losses than wins in a whole year while having an ERA+ of 200 or better. Bailey Falter, at least, has a positive 4-3 record to go with his 3.14 ERA and 133 ERA+, but only four wins in a dozen starts with a 133 ERA+ is also bad.

It wouldn't be the first time a team refused to build around a good core of pitchers, or did so poorly. Just ask Jacob deGrom in the late 2010s. deGrom's 2018 season is considered one of the best in the modern era, with a 1.70 ERA, 218 ERA+, 1.98 FIP, and 0.92 WHIP. He also had a solid supporting cast of starting pitchers, such as Noah Syndergaard, Zack Wheeler, and Steven Matz. All made at least 25 starts, and all had a sub-4.00 ERA. The highest was Steven Matz at 3.97.

However, the Mets had only three hitters with an OPS+ above 100 in at least 100 games played. They also only had one reliever with an ERA+ above 100 in 50+ innings pitched. Despite such a promising rotation, the Mets only finished 77-85, and deGrom won ten games. It's the fewest by a pitcher with an ERA+ of 200+ in at least 30 starts. The thing is, it almost happened a second time the following season.

deGrom had a 2.43 ERA, 169 ERA+, 2.67 FIP, and 0.97 WHIP in 2019. This time around, the Mets improved their offense with seven hitters with a 100+ OPS+ in 100+ games, but deGrom and Wheeler were the only pitchers who made at least 20 starts with a better-than-average ERA+. The Mets improved to 86 wins, but deGrom still only won 11 of his 32 contests and fell short of the Postseason.

Pirates must learn from Mets, Mariners about missteps

At least the Mets can say they got to go to a World Series in 2015 and make a playoff run in 2016 with deGrom. The same cannot be said about Felix Hernandez and the Seattle Mariners. The right-hander was one of the best pitchers in the league for about a decade and won a Cy Young in 2010. He had a 2.27 ERA, 171 ERA+, 3.04 FIP, and 1.06 WHIP, and he wasn't their only solid pitcher.

Jason Vargas made 31 starts and had a 3.78 ERA/104 ERA+, and Cliff Lee opened the year in Seattle and had a 2.34 ERA/168 ERA+. But Lee was dealt mid-season, and the offense was outright horrible. The M's had seven batters who appeared in 100+ games. Only one had a better-than-average OPS+. That was Ichiro with only a 113 OPS+. King Felix would end the season with a 13-12 record.

While Hernandez would continue to pitch well, the M's did not give the right-hander much support when it came to more pitching, offense, or both throughout his career. The right-hander retired as a Cy Young winner, received Cy Young votes in parts of six different seasons, made six All-Star games, and was a two-time American League ERA leader without making a single Postseason start.

There's no bigger example of wasted potential than the Los Angeles Angels. From 2012 through 2023, the Angels had at least one player in the top five in American League MVP voting. In five of those seasons, they had the AL MVP, with Mike Trout taking home the award in 2014, 2016, and 2019, and Shohei Ohtani winning it in 2021 and 2023. Across those 12 seasons, the Angels went above .500 just three times and made the Postseason once. 

The Pirates, both ownership and management, need to learn from this. On top of that, they need to look in the mirror and ask themselves: is this really the legacy they want to leave behind when it comes to this core?

Today, fans still ask, "What if the Mets and Jeff Wilpon found more offense and better bullpen arms in 2018?'

"What if the Mariners had a better offense in 2010 when Felix Hernandez won the Cy Young?"

"What if the LA Angels had better invested their money?'

Are Ben Cherington, and especially Bob Nutting, okay with fans across all of baseball asking, "What if the Pirates gave Paul Skenes and their pitchers more of an offense to back them up?" years down the line? Is that really the sort of thing they want Paul Skenes' (and the pitching staff as a whole) time with the Pirates to be remembered by? Because, as of right now, that's the sort of trend they're heading in. It's a real shame that there's a genuine possibility we may eventually have to lump Skenes and this pitching staff in with some of the biggest missed opportunities in baseball history because of a lack of care put into the lineup.