Pirates' potential solution at third base comes with an expensive catch

On the offensive side of the ball, the Pittsburgh Pirates' biggest non-Brandon Lowe priorities are adding right-handed pop, finding a solution for third base, and adding depth to the bench. If the club could wrap up all three of these items in one transaction, it would seem like a huge win.

The Pirates were connected to Houston Astros third baseman Isaac Paredes last offseason, and again at the 2026 trade deadline. Many believe that Paredes could be on the block again, as the Astros' infield logjam will resurface with Carlos Correa returning from injury in 2027. Additionally, Houston has the same needs as last year, with its pitching staff in shambles, and now, with Paredes entering his final year of team control, he will be less expensive to acquire than last year.

Pittsburgh could offer a package headlined by a young hurler who figures to be outside their rotation, such as Hunter Barco or Wilber Dotel, in an attempt to nab Paredes.

These two clubs did business last year, with the Astros serving as the third team in the deal that landed Lowe, Mason Montgomery, and Jake Mangum with the Pirates. While that might seem like the clubs would once again be willing trade partners, there's a new regime in Houston, and they're likely snake-bitten from their Mike Burrows experience.

Still, it would seem as if trying to make a deal is worth a try. Paredes hits from the right side. He slashed .262/.360/.447 with 25 homers while playing 138 games at the hot corner in 2026. His addition would force Nick Gonzales into a utility role where his defensive issues are more easily managed.

All of the aforementioned boxes would seemingly be checked. This should be easy for Ben Cherington, right? After all, the Astros have little leverage. Unfortunately, a deeper look makes this popular solution unravel.

Cost is just the start of why Isaac Paredes is a poor fit for the Pirates

Houston holds a $13.35 million option for 2027 on Paredes, and with a projected arbitration salary of $15 million, they'd be wise to pick it up. That's where the problems begin for Pittsburgh. If the club is to re-sign Brandon Lowe, could it really afford to take on that kind of salary for Paredes while also giving up assets in a trade, and then only having him for one year?

That doesn't seem like a wise way to do business. The financials are important, but so too are the young players they'd have to part with. In an ideal world, the Pirates flip prospects and young players on the margins for cost-controlled big leaguers who will be a part of the club for multiple years. That's not Paredes.

Exceptions can always be made for the right value, but that's where the next problem comes into focus. Paredes is one of the more unique hitters in the game. He has great control of the strike zone, rarely chasing or whiffing. That has also helped him to an above-average walk rate, coming in at 10.8% in 2026 and 11% for his career. The 27-year-old's on-base ability is a legitimate strength.

With 25 homers, he'd also appear to be a true power hitter. Paredes does have one tendency that aligns with what the greatest sluggers in the league do — he pulls the ball in the air... a lot. The league-average pulled air rate is 16.9%. For Paredes, it was nearly double that at 33.5% in 2026.

However, while most guys who hit 25-plus homers break out the driver at the plate, Paredes relies on his lob wedge. His 29.3% hard-hit rate this year was a 10th-percentile mark. His 86 miles per hour average exit velocity ranked in the eighth percentile. His 4.8% barrel rate was a 21st-percentile performance. All of that yielded an expected slugging percentage of just .373.

A big reason for the discrepancy between the quality of contact numbers and the impressive power results is the fact that Paredes benefited greatly from the Crawford Boxes in Houston, which served as the prime short porch that his lazy fly balls could clear.

In PNC Park, things would likely be very different. Per Baseball Savant's Statcast data, Paredes would have only hit 16 homers in Pittsburgh in 2026. His 2025 total of 20 would've nearly been halved, with an expected total of 11 in the Steel City. For his career, Paredes has accumulated 117 dingers. Had he been a Pirate that whole time, he'd only have 73 career homers.

On top of everything else, Paredes is a poor defender, recording -7 defensive runs saved and -3 outs above average this year at third. Given Pittsburgh's other defensive liabilities, the club really can't afford to add another porous glove.

All in all, trading for Paredes would be an expensive mistake. From the assets the Pirates would have to give up, to the money they'd have to pay him, to the trade-offs that would result, the return on investment would be painfully small, and it would be a move the club would live to regret.

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