Pirates prospect's poor performance is making Ke'Bryan Hayes trade look even worse

One of the trades the Pittsburgh Pirates and Ben Cherington made at the deadline was sending former Gold Glove third baseman Ke'Bryan Hayes and his remaining contract to the Cincinnati Reds. The Pirates got two players in return. One was Taylor Rogers, whom the Pirates traded almost immediately, and the other was top prospect Sammy Stafura. However, just over a month later, Straufra's struggles are making this deal look pretty poor from the onset.

At the time of the trade, Stafura was putting up solid numbers for the Reds' A-Ball affiliate, slashing .261/.392/.410, leading to a 130 wRC+ over 403 plate appearances. Stafura showed off some intriguing raw power, with an 87.4 MPH exit velocity and 9.1% barrel rate. He still had a 24.1% strikeout percentage and 28.3% whiff rate, but he counter-balanced that with an elite 15.6% BB%.

But since getting traded, Stafura is only hitting .173/.262/.282 in 127 plate appearances between Bradenton and Greensboro. While his K% has remained relatively the same at 25.2%, he is hitting for less power, with his ISO falling to just .109, compared to .149 with the Reds' A-Ball team. By far the most concerning part of Stafura's game since joining the Pirates is the massive decrease in walk rate. He has only drawn a walk 8.7% of the time since arriving.

Pirates prospect from Ke'Bryan Hayes trade is making Ben Cherington's deadline look even worse

In Stafura's defense, he has been dealt an unlucky hand. The infielder's batting average on balls in play is .191 since getting to High-A. While he is hitting fewer ground balls and line drives and more fly balls, that shouldn't make his BABIP fall this far. He still has a sub-45% fly ball rate. His BABIP all but certainly won't stay below .200 over a larger sample size. Still, the significant drop in walk rate is not something you want to see when two of his key abilities are getting on base and swiping bases. Stafura has gone 32-for-38 in stolen base attempts this year.

Meanwhile, Hayes is hitting .279/.352/.432 over his first 125 plate appearances in a new uniform. He is walking at an above-average 9.6% rate and striking out just 17.6% of the time. Hayes' .153 isolated slugging percentage sits just a few ticks below league average, but represents a massive upgrade from what he was doing in Pittsburgh the last two seasons. That all comes to a .342 wOBA and 114 wRC+ in his first impression with the Reds.

Although Hayes is hitting better on paper, keep in mind it is still a small sample size with massive home and away splits. Hayes has a .975 OPS in Great American Ballpark, but still has a sub-.600 OPS on the road (.588, to be exact). It's not like he suddenly regained his raw power either, with an 88.8 MPH exit velocity and 4.4% barrel rate (compared to 89.6 MPH and 3.6%, respectively, with the Pirates in 2024-2025). Drastic home/away splits were expected, given the Reds' home park is the third most hitter-friendly, according to Baseball Savant's park factors, and the second easiest for right-handed hitters to go yard in.

That doesn't automatically mean that Hayes is great and Stafura is a bust, but first impressions of this deal are very disheartening on the Pirates' end. The Pirates and Ben Cherington were heavily criticized for their moves at the deadline, and this definitely doesn't help things out for them (not that things were already looking great).

Hopefully, Stafura can figure things out. He is still a prospect with a high ceiling, and is ranked as a top 15 prospect in the Pirates' system by Baseball America, and cracked MLB Pipeline's top 10.