Pirates should make this mock trade with an outfield-needy team at trade deadline

Veteran Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Tommy Pham has shockingly rebuilt some of his value to the point where he could garner attention from teams in need of some outfield help. After starting off the year freezing cold, Pham has gone on a tear. He recently put together a 78-AB stretch that yielded a .389/.423/.639 triple-slash, .451 wOBA, and 192 wRC+. Pham has drilled four home runs, while only striking out 14.1% of the time. His exit velocity is up to an elite 93.7 MPH mark, and his barrel rate is sitting at 9.7% since changing his eye prescription. One team that could be interested in Pham is the Philadelphia Phillies.

Phillies outfielders are batting a combined .236/.305/.368, with a .296 wOBA and 87 wRC+. They have accounted for +0.1 fWAR, which is the worst in the National League, and only surpasses the Kansas City Royals’ outfielders, who have a pathetic -2.4 fWAR.

The Phils' three primary outfielders this season have been Nick Castellanos, Max Kepler, and Brandon Marsh. Castellanos is having a respectable season with the bat; however, both Marsh and Kepler have a sub-90 wRC+. Even then, Castellanos’ solid production in the box is overshadowed by his poor defense, and leads to -0.1 fWAR.

Pham could be a big help for the Phillies, even if he only fills a part-time role. The two Pennsylvania teams should converge on a deal, something that looks like this mock trade.

This mock Pirates-Phillies trade for Tommy Pham could work

While the Phillies get Pham in this deal, the Pirates get Wen-Hiu Pan. Pan last pitched in 2024 and put up some solid numbers, albeit in a small sample size. He tossed 29.1 innings while pitching to the tune of a 1.29 ERA, 2.41 FIP, and 1.06 WHIP. The right-hander struck out 29.2% of opponents, while only walking them at a 7.5% rate. Even though he did not even reach 30 IP, Pan didn’t allow a single home run. Pan has a big fastball that sits in the mid-90s. It’s a potential 70 grade pitch, per Baseball America. His splitter is another pitch with plus potential, earning a 60-grade rating. Lastly, his primary breaking pitch is a low-80s slider; however, it doesn’t get nearly as many rave reviews.

While Pan’s numbers were solid and he has some potent stuff on the mound, he doesn’t come without any red flags. For one, like many hard-throwing young pitchers, his command can be spotty. He may be able to hit the zone, but hitting his spots is another question. The second red flag is that he only has two pitches that project as average or better: his fastball and changeup. His slider projects as fringy. That likely tickets him for a bullpen role. He also hasn’t been tested above High-A yet. Most of Pan’s IP in 2024 came against High-A batters.

Arguably, the biggest red flag is his long-term health. Pan underwent Tommy John surgery and won’t return until next season. Considering he pitched less than 30 frames in 2024 and primarily worked out of the bullpen in A-Ball in 2023, he doesn’t have a strong track record. It will take a while for him to rebuild his workload.

A similar trade to use as an example is when the New York Yankees traded Joey Gallo to the LA Dodgers for Clayton Beeter at the 2022 trade deadline. Like Pan, Beeter projects as a relief pitcher long-term due to his lack of a third pitch and good command. Beeter was about the same age, but didn’t have Tommy John surgery on his ledger. He also had more experience as a starter, having made 27 starts in 2021, followed by 23 in 2022 and 26 in 2023. While Gallo had more upside and was younger, he was performing worse than Pham is now, and both were rentals.

Pham’s recent hot streak has helped him regain at least some of his value. The Phillies are one of the most outfield-needy teams right now. The Pirates are good at developing pitchers, and Pham likely isn’t going to get back a huge prospect anyway, so they’d be better off leaning into what they’re good at. Pan may have a high ceiling, but he is not a sure thing. His stuff is good, but there is still a lot more he needs to work on, and Tommy John surgery has not made it easy.