Pirates should sign this former division-rival top prospect to help with 2025 depth

Good teams have good depth, and if there was one thing the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates didn’t have, it wasn’t that. Jake Woodford and Domingo German are not ideal options to turn to when the team needs another starter without having to promote top prospects.

But adding decent depth shouldn’t be a huge problem. There are plenty of options out there the Pirates can add and stash at Triple-A that would be an improvement over German and Woodford.

One of said potential options is having a showcase after missing the last two seasons with injuries. That’s right-hander Justin Dunn, whi was a former first-round pick by the New York Mets in 2016. Not too longer after that, he was sent to the Seattle Mariners with Jarred Kelenic in the Edwin Diaz/Robinson Cano trade.

Dunn has spent most of his career in a Mariners uniform. From 2019-2021, he had a solid 3.94 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, and a .189 batting average against. But these solid numbers weren’t as they seemed. Dunn walked 15.5% of opponents with a strikeout rate of only 20.6%. He was also home run prone with a 1.40 HR/9 rate. Dunn may not have given up many hits, but he was aided by a .205 batting average on balls in play. He did not limit hard contact either, as opponents had a 90.5 MPH exit velocity and a 9.3% barrel rate against him. Dunn’s ERA estimators pointed to high-level overperformance. He had a 6.05 xFIP and a 5.79 SIERA. 

Dunn only pitched 102 innings across these three seasons, so his surface numbers likely wouldn’t hold over a larger sample size. Either way, the Mariners included Dunn in yet another high-profile trade, as he was sent to the Cincinnati Reds alongside a bevy of other players for former All-Stars Jesse Winker and Eugenio Suarez.

The former top prospect would only end up tossing 31 innings with an ERA over 6.00. Dunn had already experienced shoulder issues prior to the trade, but the injuries would only become worse. He suffered a rotator cuff injury that sidelined him for nearly all of 2023, then underwent another shoulder procedure in September, keeping him out for all of 2024 as well. At the conclusion of the 2023 season, the Reds decided to part ways with Dunn.

Dunn is now looking for a return to baseball. From what little recent video there is of him, he definitely looks like he’s trending in the right direction. He was sitting 94 MPH (compared to only 92.5 MPH throughout his Major League career) with more spin (and better spin efficiency). Of course, these numbers are taken from a video that only shows part of his bullpen session, but it is worth noting, and at least shows he’s back at full strength.

Dunn is reportedly holding a showcase, according to Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. Jon Heyman also reported that Dunn's showcase will be this Tuesday in Phoenix. If Dunn can show off some of the stuff he was flashing in bullpen sessions, then it might be worth the Pirates’ time to sign him to a minor league deal and keep him at Triple-A.

Dunn is probably a better depth option over the likes of Woodford, German, and Daulton Jeffries, and with how well the Pirates have been able to develop pitchers recently, it could end up being a worthwhile (and very low-risk) investment.