Pirates shouldn't regret Luke Weaver trade despite ugly early results

Heading into the trade deadline, Luke Weaver was the most dominant reliever who was legitimately on the block. For the then-bullpen-needy Pittsburgh Pirates, it seemed like it was a great trade that was made even better when it was revealed that the New York Mets were sending over a little over $8 million to offset his salary through next season.

However, the 1.84 ERA that Weaver posted in New York has ballooned to a 6.23 mark in Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, the prospect the Pirates sent back to the Mets, Sammy Stafura, has continued to shine post-trade.

Relievers, even the best ones, could be volatile. Is it possible that Ben Cherington got fleeced? There are a few things to keep in mind.

First, Weaver's disappointing performance definitely didn't help Pittsburgh hang on in the wild card race. Obviously, he's not the only reason why the club has sunk, but he was counted on to be a high-leverage demon, and instead he's tormented Pirates fans.

Despite poor 2026 numbers, Luke Weaver will be a key piece of the Pirates' 2027 bullpen

There are a few extenuating circumstances that explain away Weaver's struggles since the trade. First and foremost, while it's been disappointing, the sample size is pretty small. As a Pirate, the righty has made just 14 appearances and thrown 13 innings. Nine of his 14 outings have been scoreless affairs, which, while not great, shows he's not getting smacked around every time he's handed the ball.

Weaver has a pretty long track record of success, meaning he gets more of the benefit of the doubt for a short string of scuffles versus other, less accomplished relievers.

On top of that, there are also some indicators that this is simply bad luck. Weaver's strikeout rate has dipped only slightly, falling from 26.6% with the Mets to 24.1% in Pittsburgh. His walk rate has virtually remained the same, with a 6.5% rate before the deal and a 6.9% rate after.

What has changed is an overcorrection in his batting average on balls in play. In New York, he had an unsustainably low .204 BABIP, and now, with the Pirates, it is a laughably high .378, which will not continue.

Furthermore, his left on-base rate has fallen from 82.8% to 65.9%. That low mark is also not something that should be expected to continue and is typically a sign of bad luck. One thing that is somewhat concerning is the rise in home runs, jumping from 0.61 HR/9 to 1.38. That has been a bugaboo for Weaver in the past, with a career average of 1.33 HR/9. Still, if everything else levels off, he should be just fine.

The last excuse for Weaver is the fact that he dealt with a severe case of poison ivy in mid-August that impacted his ability to even sleep. That crazy one-off won't be repeated, and definitely didn't help his performance.

Long story short, there are still plenty of reasons to believe in Weaver, and the fact that he's under team control next season as well matters a lot in the evaluation of the trade. He should partner with the incredible Mason Montgomery to form one of the most formidable back-end bullpen duos in the league next season.

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