A Pirates-Twins mock trade that would instantly improve the Bucs' bullpen

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ bullpen was one of the biggest reasons for their late season collapse this past season. A once formidable group was marred by multiple, impactful injuries, as well as underperformance from some of the most important arms. The Pirates need to make a move, and this would be a big one, as the Pirates would be acquiring flamethrowing reliever Jhoan Duran in this mock trade proposal.

This Mock Trade Between Pirates and Twins Would Help Build Pittsburgh's Bullpen

Pittsburgh Pirates acquire: Jhoan Duran
Minnesota Twins acquire: Zander Mueth and Yordany De Los Santos

On paper, Duran’s 3.64 ERA is a step back from his previous career work; he had just a 2.15 ERA in 2022-2023. Still, he posted some very strong peripherals, including a 28.9% K%, 6.6% walk rate, and 0.66 HR/9. Duran limited hard contact better than ever with an 87 MPH exit velocity and 3.5% barrel rate last season, the latter of which ranked in the 98th percentile of pitchers. Duran’s batting average on balls in play was .321, compared to only .298 in 2022-2023. ERA estimators still pinned him as an elite reliever with a 2.70 xFIP and 2.50 SIERA.

Duran’s stuff didn’t take a step back, either. If anything, his offerings looked better than ever. Stuff+ put him at 132, which set a career-high water mark for the flamethrower. That was the 14th best among any pitcher this season with at least 50 innings under their belt. Duran’s fastball has sat in the 100th percentile of pitchers since he made his debut in 2022; that has never wavered.

The package of prospects the Pirates would move here contains a lot of upside. Zander Mueth was a third-round high school pick from the 2023 draft. Last season, he pitched 74 innings between the Florida Complex League and A-Ball Bradenton, working to a 2.31 ERA, 4.59 FIP, and 1.31 WHIP. Mueth had a respectable 23.8% K% while allowing just a single home run, but he did struggle to limit free passes and had a BB% of 15.1%.

Mueth’s numbers had a lot of ups and downs, but he has undeniable talent. Mueth sits 93-95 MPH with his four-seamer and mixes in a sinker, slider, and changeup. All of Mueth’s offerings project as average or better. His stuff registered as some of the best among players his age.

But what makes Mueth so special is that he throws relatively hard from a low arm slot. Along with a tricky motion that batters can have a hard time picking up, his release point helps add another level of deception. At just 19 and listed at 6’6”, 205 pounds, Mueth has the potential to add more velocity as well as improve his command.

The other prospect the Pirates would be sending to Minnesota in this deal is Yordany De Los Santos. The infield prospect was one of the top international signees in the 2021-2022 offseason. De Los Santos hit the ball well at the FCL this year, batting .344/.407/.505 with a .433 wOBA and 146 wRC+ in 216 plate appearances. That earned him a promotion to A-Ball, but his numbers wilted to a .195/.300/.264 triple-slash and 72 wRC+, albeit in a smaller sample size of 101 trips to the plate.

Although his numbers took a turn for the worse when he was promoted, he is still only 19 and turns 20 in February. He still drew walks at a 12.9% rate with a solid 21.8% K% at Bradenton. De Los Santos’ raw power is not in question. He also projects as a solid defender at shortstop but hasn’t displayed the range you’d typically see from a middle infielder. He can hold his own at shortstop, but the worst-case scenario is that he moves to the hot corner. His arm is plenty strong enough to play on the left side of the infield.

Mueth and De Los Santos are high-ceiling prospects with a lot of upside, but come with a risk factor -- but investing in relievers is also a high-risk/reward investment. Duran and David Bednar would have the potential to be one of, if not the best, eighth/ninth inning 1-2 punches in baseball, and that would be worth the upside play.