2024 Pittsburgh Pirates Rum Bunter staff prediction: Noah Wright

Staff writer Noah Wright kicks off the yearly pre-season predictions from the Rum Bunter staff with his predictions for the 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates

It's that time of the year again, that time when we share our predictions for the Pittsburgh Pirates and their upcoming season. Last year, the Pirates went 76-86, a sizable 14-win improvement from 2022. The season was a rollercoaster, but they made a statement in the end. They're getting better, and I think they'll only go up from here.

So with that, I want to share my thoughts on the team, everything from my record prediction, who I think will be the team MVP, best pitcher, Rookie of the Year, Comeback player of the year, as well as one breakout position player and pitcher. So, with that, let's get into my first prediction. For those curious, here is the link to my predictions from last season.

Record: 83-79

I'll admit I am much more optimistic than most. But I don't think the Pirates are all that far away from around 82-85 wins. The Pirates finished with 76 wins in 2023. They also played above .500 ball from late July onward, and most of that was with just two starting pitchers, Mitch Keller, and Johan Oviedo. I don't think the Pirates are that far from improving to a very respectable team and going from 76 wins to 83 wins should not be that large of a step.

The Pirates will definitely improve by getting Oneil Cruz back into action. Having a steady player at shortstop will be an improvement of the juggling the Pirates had to resort to after Cruz tore his ankle last year. If Cruz can look anything like he did in the second half of the 2022 campaign, we're looking at one of the most talented players in baseball.

The Pirates also have a ton of upcoming pitching. Paul Skenes and Jared Jones could help reinforce the rotation by June. They'll also get JT Brubaker and Mike Burrows back in action by the second half of the year. That is four potential rotation reinforcements the Pirates will get around the time of the All-Star Break. Plus, having some stability in a super durable arm in Marco Gonzales will help.

Position player-wise, I think that Rowdy Tellez will look more like what he did in April and May of 2023 before his forearm injury. Plus his defense might even take a step forward after seemingly slimming down in the off-season. Edward Olivares should play better in a less spacious field like Kauffman. The Pirates have a ton of other rebound or breakout players on their roster right now, including Henry Davis, Jared Triolo, Joshua Palacios, Roansy Contreras, Luis Ortiz, and Quinn Priester.

There will also be some addition by subtraction. As I stated with Cruz, this will definitely take playing time away from Alika Williams, who had a 43 wRC+ with the Pirates in 46 games last season. Austin Hedges appeared in 65 games with the Pirates with a 26 wRC+. Osvaldo Bido, Duane Underwood Jr., and Rob Zastryzny combined for 95.2 innings and -0.6 bWAR. With a much more stable bullpen and starting pitching reinforcements on the way by June, they hopefully won't have to resort to playing as many sub-replacement level pitchers as they did.

The Pirates would need to improve by seven wins to reach my prediction. Having Cruz back and not playing Alika Williams semi-regularly as they did in August and September last year adds at least three more, in my opinion (at the very least). I am fully confident the Pirates can find at least four more W's between Davis, Tellez, Olivares, Triolo, Ortiz, Contreras, Palacios, Skenes, Brubaker, Jones, Burrows, and Priester.

MVP: Bryan Reynolds

I have Bryan Reynolds as the team's MVP next season. 2023 was a down season but for his standards only. He still posted a quality .263/.330/.460 triple-slash and hit 20+ home runs for the third season in a row with 24. Overall, he was still a well above-average batter with a .338 wOBA and 110 wRC+. But I think he can be even better next year, even over Oneil Cruz.

There are a few reasons why I have Bryan Reynolds over Cruz. The first is that Reynolds was very good down the stretch. Through his final 264 plate appearances of the season, which lasted from July 30th through his last game, Reynolds hit .277/.345/.513 with a .363 wOBA and 127 wRC+. Those numbers are almost identical to the .314/.377/.503 triple-slash and 127 wRC+ he posted in his 2019 rookie campaign. Like his rookie season, he also had a similar BB% (8% in 2023 compared to 8.4%) and strikeout rate (23.9% to 22.2%).

The next reason is that Reynolds had some extremely promising underlying numbers. He posted the best exit velocity (90.9 MPH) and barrel rate (11.1%) of his career. His .360 xwOBA was a lot closer to what he posted in his final 264 plate appearances of the season vs his overall season numbers. He had an impressive .490 xSLG% and .280 xBA, both of which nearly mirrored his August through September numbers.

Defensively, Reynolds was a better left fielder than he was a center fielder. He had +2 defensive runs saved, a +1.0 UZR/150, and -3 outs above average. Even though his arm strength was only in the 36th percentile last year, we definitely know he can reel off decent throws. He was above the 75th percentile in both 2021 and 2022. 

I have Bryan Reynolds batting .280/.350/.500 with 20-25 home runs with solid left field defense. I think he's a safe bet to be a quality player once again. His second-half numbers were extremely promising, and the underlying stats are very reflective of those compared to his numbers in the first half of the season.

Cy Young and Rookie of the Year: Paul Skenes

Many people will have Mitch Keller as the team's best pitcher, and I believe that's possible. I think Keller is going to be great this year. But I'm going to go a little bold and say that not only is Paul Skenes the Pirates' best rookie, but he end up as their best-starting pitcher by the end of the 2024 campaign. That's no knock on Keller but rather a major compliment to Skenes.

Once you look at some of Skenes' college numbers and his overall stuff, you'll see why. Skenes pitched 122.2 innings for Louisiana State University, working to a 1.69 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, and 10.45 K:BB ratio. He struck out 209 batters and had a strikeout rate of 45.2%. For reference, no pitcher in MLB history has ever struck out 200+ batters in less than 150 innings. But he also had a walk rate of just 4.3% and an HR/9, clocking in at 0.51.

Skenes' stuff is off the charts. A 6'6", 235-pound imposing force on the mound, Skenes regularly runs his stuff up into the triple-digits. He sits 97-100 but was topping out at 103 for LSU. His slider has 11 inches of horizontal break and glides away from hitters with sweeping action. Then there's his change-up. Both his fastball and slider are 70, maybe even 80-grade pitches, and while his changeup may not be on that level, it's still a plus offering.

Skenes has displayed plus command as well. He is an athletic pitcher who played some catcher and corner outfield while at Air Force before transferring to LSU. His motion is fluid, and even though he can run the heat into 100+ MPH territory, he has a low-effort delivery, which should help even more with his ability to locate in the long run.

I think Skenes will come up sometime in early June at the latest, right around the time the Pirates gain the extra year of control over him. Not only do I think he will end up as the Pirates' best pitcher and their best rookie, but don't be shocked if he is in contention for the Rookie of the Year award this year.

Breakout Position Player: Joshua Palacios

Many people are going to put Edward Olivares, or maybe Oneil Cruz if you think he's a breakout candidate. But I have Joshua Palacios. The Pirates took Palacios in the minor league phase of the Rule 5 draft. His surface numbers don't shout "breakout candidate," but based on his other underlying numbers, there's a lot to like about Palacios heading into 2024.

First off, Palacios' raw power was outstanding. He had a 91.3 MPH exit velocity, a 45.4% hard-hit rate, and a 9.8% barrel rate. All were well above average last year. A good comparison would be Sean Murphy, who had a 91.5 MPH exit velocity, 45.8% hard-hit rate, and a 10% barrel rate. Jorge Soler also had similar metrics with a 91.3 MPH exit velocity, a 48% hard-hit rate, and a 9.5% barrel rate. Every qualified batter in 2023 with a 91+ MPH exit velocity, 45%+ hard-hit rate, and barrel rate of at least 9% hit 20 or more home runs last year, with the only one registering a below-average wRC+ being Giancarlo Stanton.

Secondly, Palacios had a .318 xwOBA, significantly higher than the .297 wOBA he posted in 2023. He had the 42nd-highest difference between his wOBA and xwOBA among batters with 250+ plate appearances. His 105 DRC+ (deserved runs created plus) also paints him as an above-average batter and significantly higher than his 83 wRC+. Overall, this would make him an above-average batter.

Lastly, Palacios did end the year on a very high note. He batted .318/.338/.530 with a .369 wOBA, and 131 wRC+ in September. Now, there were some worrying factors about this stretch. He had a 2.9% walk rate, 27.9% strikeout rate, and a .395 batting average on balls in play. It was a small sample size, and where there were some red flags, there were also some positives. His flyball rate and launch angle at that point in the second half of the season was just 36.2% ad 8.2 degrees. He then upped that to 41.3% and 12.6 degrees in September. 

I think Palacios has a lot going for him this season, and this isn't the first time I've had this take. I went much further in-depth with why I think Palacios will be a good player in 2024. He showed off good power, and while he didn't have the greatest plate discipline, I think he'll provide some unexpected pop for the Pirates in 2024.

Breakout Pitcher: Roansy Contreras

After a promising rookie season in 2022, Roansy Contreras was expected to be a key cog in the Pirate rotation in 2023. However, Contreras fell into a slump he could never get out of, losing velocity and being sent to the minor leagues to work on some stuff. This left the Pirates facing a decision with Contreras. But based on reports and his Spring debut, Contreras is looking just as good, if not better, than in 2022.

Contreras saw his ERA, FIP, and WHIP go from 3.79, 4.38, and 1.27 in 2022 to just 6.59, 5.19, and 1.57 in 2023. The young right-hander lost a lot off his fastball, going from 95.6 MPH in his rookie year to 94.3 last season. He hit 96+ MPH 91 times in 2022. I can nearly count the amount of times he hit 96+ on one hand, as he hit velocity just six times. His max velocity in 2022 was 98.3 MPH, and he didn't even hit 97 last season.

Because of this, his fastball lost movement, going from 12.3 inches of vertical drop to 14.3 inches. Despite the riding life his fastball had going by the wayside, he still used the pitch like it was the 94-96 MPH offering with carry he had in 2022. Although his fastball lost some life, it wasn't all doom and gloom for the rest of his pitches.

Both of Contreras' breaking pitches, that being his curveball and slider, generated outstanding whiff rates, with the former clocking in at 44.7% and the latter at 36.5%. Batters had a sub-.300 xwOBA against both pitches. While his changeup was his least used offering, it also had an opponent xwOBA below .300 at .268.

In Contreras' first Spring Training outing, however, his fastball looked back up to speed. He averaged out at 95.2 MPH, however what was more promising is that he got some of its movement back. The pitch averaged out at 13 inches of drop, which is a step in the right direction. Contreras' curveball also gained nearly two whole ticks of velocity with movement closely resembling his 2022 form, as did his slider's movement.

It has only been 4.1 innings of Grapefruit League action, but he has looked the best he has since 2022. I think this is going to be Contreras' revenge tour, and he's going to give the Pirates what they expected when they promoted him in 2022. At the very least, I think he's going to rebound to 2022 form.