3 best tools acquired by the Pirates this offseason
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For small-market teams such as the Pirates, the offseason rarely features a splashy free-agent signing, a player who can single-handedly turn a game or a season around. Rather, the winter months in Pittsburgh feature wheeling and dealing as the front office attempts to solve a puzzle. What areas of the team do we need to bolster? What players feature a tool or two that can help us take the next step forward?
With this in mind, here’s my way-to-early ranking of the top tools picked up this offseason.
As noted by Ethan Fisher yesterday, the Pirates have bought into a patient approach at the plate, and as of Thursday, they rank second in the Majors in on-base percentage. In other words, the recipe for success in the first few games of the season has been “get ‘em on, get ‘em over, get ‘em in.”
Michael A. Taylor has been the epitome of this concept. Take Monday’s win over the Nationals, for example. Taylor led off the eighth inning with a bunt single and moved to second on a sac bunt by Alika Williams. On a 2-0 count, Taylor broke for third, and Connor Joe promptly smashed a line-drive double on the hit-and-run. Taylor easily scored, and the chances of the Pirates winning the game rose 22.9%.
Michael A. Taylor lays down a perfect bunt to lead off the 8th inning in a tie ball game pic.twitter.com/bpkiUtlyZz
— Platinum Ke’Bryan (@PlatinumKey13) April 1, 2024
Taylor’s top sprint speed in 2024 is just 26.7 mph, compared to 28.7 in 2023. Pirates fans shouldn’t be too concerned by this dip. Frankly, aside from that bunt single and a few infield hits, Taylor has had little cause to show off his wheels. Fifty percent of Taylor’s contact has been “hard hit,” according to Statcast (meaning, an exit velocity of 95+ mph). When you hit the ball that hard, you likely aren’t breaking a sweat making it to first base. Similarly, only one of Taylor’s fielding opportunities has had a catch probability lower than 95%. In other words, it’s been a laid-back start to the season.
When the Pirates need the speed, though, it’ll be there. Even at age 33, Taylor has the baserunning IQ and fielding acumen to be at the right place at the right time.
Fleming's Sinker-Cutter Combo
Josh Fleming might not be the go-to lefty in the Pirates’ bullpen all season; in fact, he’s not even the best lefty in the ‘pen right now. That would be Ryan Borucki and/or Aroldis Chapman. When Bailey Falter inevitably tumbles out of the starting rotation, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Fleming put out on waivers or shopped at the Trade Deadline. Until then, though, he has made himself at home with Pittsburgh.
Fleming has made appearances in half of the Pirates’ games so far, including a three-inning save in the second game of the season. Over five innings in three games, Fleming has struck out five batters and induced an average exit velocity of 82.5 mph. Some of this success can be attributed to the reintroduction of his cutter, a pitch that he abandoned last season. The cutter’s horizontal movement, which breaks in on a right-handed batter, plays well off his sinker, which breaks down and away.
Don’t expect Fleming to continue producing these strikeout numbers. He’s a textbook ground-ball pitcher. In fact, I could see the cutter getting him into trouble; if he elevates a pitch with relatively little downward break, it could spin right into the sweet spot. Fleming’s launch angle is the highest it has been in his career, but opposing batters have yet to barrel up his pitches. The cutter, currently an asset, might prove to be a liability as opponents’ scouting reports catch up to Fleming’s current repertoire.
Chapman's Velocity
By and large, the Pirates aren’t going to blow batters away. Aside from Jared Jones (and eventually Paul Skenes), the starters tend to rely on break and control, and the bullpen lefties, like Fleming, lean heavily on ground balls. That is, unless you’re Aroldis Chapman. Both Chapman’s fastball and sinker average 98+ mph with spin rates of 2280+.
Chapman’s value increases when considered as a companion piece to David Bednar. The righty-lefty high-velocity tandem could throw opposing managers into fits. Imagine facing crafty starters throwing in the high 80s, like Marco Gonzales, and then having to adjust to either of these flamethrowers.
In 2023, the Pirates were 22-17 in one-run games, in large part thanks to their bullpen.
With several key ‘pen arms on the IL to start 2024, Chapman’s presence has the potential to be a difference-maker in close games.