3 biggest Pittsburgh Pirates prospect breakouts of 2024

Every year, baseball teams used to trading in hope are gifted with a new batch of prospect breakouts to make their pipelines a bit more appealing. Last year for the Pittsburgh Pirates, the likes of Jack Brannigan and Lonnie White Jr., along with Braxton Ashcraft, represented some notable names who took a step forward.

Luckily, the Pirates have seen an additional group of impressive prospects break out this year. Most have been pitchers, and their breakouts could affect how the Pirates approach this offseason, as well as their long-term plans.

3 breakout Pirates prospects to keep an eye on after 2024 season

Carlson Reed

The Pirates drafted Carlson Reed last year in the fifth round. The right-hander from West Virginia University has pitched most of his season at Bradenton before recently getting promoted to Greensboro. During his time with the Marauders, Reed pitched 77.2 innings, working to a 2.43 ERA, 3.47 FIP, and 1.25 WHIP.

Reed struck out his fair share of batters with a K% clocking in at 29.7%. He also was not prone to the long ball, with a HR/9 rate of 0.47, and induced a ground ball 55.7% of the time. Batters had a hard time ever making contact off of him. Reed induced a swing and miss 32.2% of the time, and when opposing hitters did hit the ball, they only managed to produce an average exit velocity of 85.4 MPH with a 3.3% barrel rate.

Since getting promoted to Greensboro, the young right-hander has only continued to pitch well. He has made four starts, pitching 18.2 innings (one outing was shortened due to rain), only allowing one earned run. Reed has continued to strike out batters at a high rate, with 23 Ks and a 31.1% K%. Luckily, walks have been much less of an issue thus far, as he’s only handed out seven free passes with a 9.5% walk rate.

Reed’s numbers are great, but the biggest development is that this is the first time since at least high school he has made double-digit starts while remaining effective. The Pirates drafted Reed as a reliever from West Virginia University. In his final season, he pitched 38 innings, all out of the 'pen, working to a 2.61 ERA, 34.7% strikeout rate, 14.5% walk rate, and 0.5 HR/9. He saved seven games for the Mountaineers. However, in 2021 and 2022, he struggled while working both out of the bullpen and rotation.

Heading into the draft, many projected him to eventually move to the bullpen, given his mediocre command. That could still be the case, but Reed is now approaching 100 innings pitched and has continued to dominate after getting promoted to the next level of the minor leagues. Double-A will be Reed’s biggest test, whenever he gets promoted to Altoona. But so far, Reed’s ability to work as a starting pitcher after struggling to do so in college has been impressive nonetheless.

Alessandro Ercolani

Alessandro Ercolani posted about league-average numbers at A-Ball last year for the Bradenton Marauders. It was his first extended look in pro ball, and a promising one for the then 19-year-old right-hander. Ercolani’s performance at A-Ball earned him a promotion to Greensboro to start the year, and he’s posting even better numbers.

Ercolani has pitched 70 innings on the year with a 3.34 ERA, 3.63 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP. He is striking out 30.3% of opponents, but the most important part of his season is his low walk rate. Ercolani struggled with free passes in 2022 and 2023, but now he’s cut his BB% to 8.3%. His 1.03 HR/9 is below average, but marks just about the only blemish on his 2024 report card.

Ercolani has had one bad outing all year that has inflated most of his numbers. On May 22nd, he allowed nine earned runs, three walks, and two homers in just 2.1 innings. His ERA outside of this one singular game is 2.26. Remove that performance, and Ercolani’s walk rate drops to 7.8%, while his strikeout rate rises to 31.6%, and his HR/9 falls to just 0.80.

Ercolani was sitting mid-90s with Bradenton. His pitch mix includes a cutter, slider, curveball, and a changeup. He is listed at 6’2”, 185pounds and throws from a three-quarters arm angle. Ercolani has struggled with command before. His wind up has a quick follow through that had more moving parts earlier in his pro career.

Ercolani has yet to show up on any prospect lists. But given he’ll be just 21 at Altoona next year, you’ll probably start seeing him get more attention. He is young and has performed admirably at every level of the minor leagues thus far. Plus, he’s yet another pitching prospect who broke out this year and will likely open 2025 in the upper levels of the minor leagues.