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3 bold comeback predictions for Oneil Cruz
Stolen bases - 30+
Essentially, 2024 will be the first time the speedy leadoff man gets to enjoy the perks of the larger bases, which led to an all-time high success rate in steals across MLB. In 2022, Cruz swiped bases at a 71% success rate, which was slightly below the league average of 75.4%. Both the larger bags and his experience in the league should give Cruz an edge.
A comparison point here is Ji Hwan Bae. The two Pirates have similar sprint speeds (Bae - 29.7; Cruz - 29.9) and similar on-base percentages (Bae in 2023 - .296; Cruz in 2022 - .294). Last year, Bae swiped 24 bases in just 111 games.
The Pirates of 2023, much like those of 2022, don’t have the power hitters that might necessitate caution on the basepaths. (Why risk a steal when you could be trotting home on the next pitch?) As noted earlier this week on Rum Bunter, manager Derek Shelton has long preached aggressive baserunning tactics, despite attempting steals of second at just about the league average (98 Rate+ over his career according to Baseball-Reference). With Cruz’s speed, 2024 could be an opportunity for the Pirates to capitalize on baserunning.
The only aspect of Cruz’s game that could hinder him from reaching the 30 SB mark this season is his swing-and-miss rate. Cruz had one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball in 2022, and as the saying goes, you can’t steal first base.