3 bold comeback predictions for Oneil Cruz

Home runs - 20-25

I’m being conservative here. Cruz certainly has the raw power to hit 25, even 30 homers in a season, but I just don’t see it happening this year. He’s coming off a significant injury, and he still hasn’t played a full season of Major League ball. Hitting 25 homers requires a level of consistency in both playing time and power output that I’m not sure Cruz will have this year. Cruz’s strikeout numbers will make him susceptible to slumps, and his ability to break out of slumps is an unknown entity, given his limited MLB experience.

Cruz has been very vocal about the fact that he wants to have a 30-30 (or even 40-40) season, but despite a recent up-tick in members of the 30-30 club, the feat is exceedingly rare (and elusive… just ask Kyle Tucker). The four players who achieved this lauded status in 2023 ranked in the 70th percentile in virtually every Statcast batting category. Cruz has a long way to go to climb to those ranks.

That said, Cruz has been itching to play. He got some instructional games at the Pirates’ academy in the Dominican Republic, and he’s already getting into the action in Bradenton. Perhaps an eager Cruz can start the season hot and launch a couple dozen balls into the stratosphere.