3 bold comeback predictions for Oneil Cruz

What can we expect from Oneil Cruz in the 2024 season? Will he translate his dazzling solo efforts into consistent, high-level play for the Pittsburgh Pirates?

In a season of disappointments, the loss of Oneil Cruz in just the ninth Pirates game of 2023 was one of the toughest pills to swallow. In a year of unprecedented power-speed numbers, Cruz – and Pittsburgh fans – could only watch. So what’s in store for a healthy Cruz in 2024?

The sight of Cruz taking BP in the black and gold in Bradenton has Pirates fans dreaming of what could be. Will Cruz translate his penchant for dazzling solo efforts into consistent, high-level play? Who will reign supreme in the battle of NL Central Cruzes (the other being Elly De La Cruz, of course)? Can he become the first Pirates slugger to eclipse 30 homers since Josh Bell in 2019? Here are my predictions for Cruz's 2024 season:

Stolen bases - 30+

Essentially, 2024 will be the first time the speedy leadoff man gets to enjoy the perks of the larger bases, which led to an all-time high success rate in steals across MLB. In 2022, Cruz swiped bases at a 71% success rate, which was slightly below the league average of 75.4%. Both the larger bags and his experience in the league should give Cruz an edge.

A comparison point here is Ji Hwan Bae. The two Pirates have similar sprint speeds (Bae - 29.7; Cruz - 29.9) and similar on-base percentages (Bae in 2023 - .296; Cruz in 2022 - .294). Last year, Bae swiped 24 bases in just 111 games. 

The Pirates of 2023, much like those of 2022, don’t have the power hitters that might necessitate caution on the basepaths. (Why risk a steal when you could be trotting home on the next pitch?) As noted earlier this week on Rum Bunter, manager Derek Shelton has long preached aggressive baserunning tactics, despite attempting steals of second at just about the league average (98 Rate+ over his career according to Baseball-Reference). With Cruz’s speed, 2024 could be an opportunity for the Pirates to capitalize on baserunning.

The only aspect of Cruz’s game that could hinder him from reaching the 30 SB mark this season is his swing-and-miss rate. Cruz had one of the highest strikeout rates in baseball in 2022, and as the saying goes, you can’t steal first base.

Home runs - 20-25

I’m being conservative here. Cruz certainly has the raw power to hit 25, even 30 homers in a season, but I just don’t see it happening this year. He’s coming off a significant injury, and he still hasn’t played a full season of Major League ball. Hitting 25 homers requires a level of consistency in both playing time and power output that I’m not sure Cruz will have this year. Cruz’s strikeout numbers will make him susceptible to slumps, and his ability to break out of slumps is an unknown entity, given his limited MLB experience.

Cruz has been very vocal about the fact that he wants to have a 30-30 (or even 40-40) season, but despite a recent up-tick in members of the 30-30 club, the feat is exceedingly rare (and elusive… just ask Kyle Tucker). The four players who achieved this lauded status in 2023 ranked in the 70th percentile in virtually every Statcast batting category. Cruz has a long way to go to climb to those ranks.

That said, Cruz has been itching to play. He got some instructional games at the Pirates’ academy in the Dominican Republic, and he’s already getting into the action in Bradenton. Perhaps an eager Cruz can start the season hot and launch a couple dozen balls into the stratosphere.