Max Kepler
Max Kepler has been a staple in the Minnesota Twins’ outfield for years, but the lefty hitter is about to hit the free agent market. He is a consistent hitter with some very good seasons under his belt, and is someone the Pirates should definitely keep on their radar.
Kepler is batting .253/.302/.380 this year with a .298 wOBA and 94 wRC+. He is walking at an uncharacteristically low rate at just 5.2%. His previous career low was 8.3%, which he set in 2017. Kepler has an ISO above .200 in two of his last three seasons (not including 2020), but currently sits at .128.
Granted, Kepler was outstanding in 2023, batting .260/.330/.484 with a .348 wOBA and 123 wRC+. During that season, he walked far more often, with a 9.2% BB%, and hit 24 dingers in 491 plate appearances. Kepler posted a .224 isolated slugging percentage, which was nearly one hundred points greater than his ISO this year.
Kepler has some large platoon splits. When facing a righty, Kepler hits .243/.326/.452. However, he bats just .229/.292/.363 when facing same-handed opponents. That is a 123-point drop in OPS. His strikeout rate and walk rate go from 17.7% and 10.4% against right-handers to 21.2% and 7.8%, respectively, when facing southpaws.
Kepler has consistently graded out as a strong defensive outfielder. While he may have zero defensive runs saved, he has +4 outs above average, an above-average jump, and route-running abilities. He also has a decent arm and is in the 68th percentile of arm strength. Overall throughout his career, Kepler has +50 defensive runs saved and +66 outs above average. Since making his debut in 2015, he has the 15th most DRS and fifth most OAA among outfielders.
At Kepler’s best, he is a 20+ home run hitter with a wRC+ of around 120, but he has only reached that plateau twice in his career. Kepler also has six other seasons where his wRC+ has ranged from 93 to 97. Given his strong defense and platoon splits, he’s managed to stay a viable outfield option for the Twins, even in his down seasons. However, if he does require a platoon partner, the next name on today’s list could be that guy.