3 free agents the Pirates should chase if Bryan Reynolds moves to first base

Bryan Reynolds could be on the move to first base next year, and if the Pirates commit to it, they should look into these free agents to take over left field.

Aug 31, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants outfielder Michael Conforto (8) runs the bases after hitting a one-run home run against the Miami Marlins during the eighth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Robert Edwards-Imagn Images
Aug 31, 2024; San Francisco, California, USA; San Francisco Giants outfielder Michael Conforto (8) runs the bases after hitting a one-run home run against the Miami Marlins during the eighth inning at Oracle Park. Mandatory Credit: Robert Edwards-Imagn Images / Robert Edwards-Imagn Images
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The Pittsburgh Pirates might move All-Star outfielder Bryan Reynolds to first base next season. He’s already begun getting workouts at the position, and while he may not make the move this year, it seems like a likely possibility it will happen during the 2025 campaign.

But if the Pirates move Reynolds to first base, that will leave a hole in left field. While the Pirates could venture to the trade market to find a replacement, the free agent market should have some options that will likely be in the Pirates’ budget, too. 

Corner outfield free agents who could replace Bryan Reynolds with Pirates

Michael Conforto

Veteran outfielder Michael Conforto is having a very solid season for the San Francisco Giants. He is slashing .234/.306/.450 with a .325 wOBA and 110 wRC+. Although he is walking at a career-low 8.8% rate, he has hit 20 home runs and has a .216 isolated slugging percentage, the most homers and ISO he has hit for since 2019. Still, Conforto has a lot more untapped promise.

He has some massive home/away splits. When playing at Oracle Park, Conforto has hit just .208/.284/.337 with a .274 wOBA and 79 wRC+. But, when he is on the road, Conforto is slashing .253/.323/.530 with a .362 wOBA and 133 wRC+. Oracle Park is the third least hitter-friendly ballpark in baseball; PNC, on the other hand, slightly favors batters, according to Baseball Savant.

A look under the hood also shows some room for improvement. His 90.3 MPH average exit velocity is the best he has ever put up since his 2015 season, which only consisted of 194 plate appearances. His 12% barrel rate nearly matches a career-high, which he set in 2018 at 12.2%. He is in the 84th percentile of xwOBA (.352) and the 88th percentile of xSLG% (.490). 

Conforto has never graded out as an outstanding defender, but he can hold his own. He has -4 outs above average, but zero defensive runs saved, and a +0.9 UZR/150. He does have a strong arm and is in the 82nd percentile of arm strength, averaging 89.5 MPH on his outfield throws. Although he runs solid routes, he ranks 84th in outfield jump. All of Conforto’s playing time this year has come in left field. 

Conforto is coming off his most promising season since his days with the New York Mets. He is one of the more underrated players on the market this year, and the Pirates should take advantage of that.

Max Kepler

Max Kepler has been a staple in the Minnesota Twins’ outfield for years, but the lefty hitter is about to hit the free agent market. He is a consistent hitter with some very good seasons under his belt, and is someone the Pirates should definitely keep on their radar.

Kepler is batting .253/.302/.380 this year with a .298 wOBA and 94 wRC+. He is walking at an uncharacteristically low rate at just 5.2%. His previous career low was 8.3%, which he set in 2017. Kepler has an ISO above .200 in two of his last three seasons (not including 2020), but currently sits at .128.

Granted, Kepler was outstanding in 2023, batting .260/.330/.484 with a .348 wOBA and 123 wRC+. During that season, he walked far more often, with a 9.2% BB%, and hit 24 dingers in 491 plate appearances. Kepler posted a .224 isolated slugging percentage, which was nearly one hundred points greater than his ISO this year.

Kepler has some large platoon splits. When facing a righty, Kepler hits .243/.326/.452. However, he bats just .229/.292/.363 when facing same-handed opponents. That is a 123-point drop in OPS. His strikeout rate and walk rate go from 17.7% and 10.4% against right-handers to 21.2% and 7.8%, respectively, when facing southpaws.

Kepler has consistently graded out as a strong defensive outfielder. While he may have zero defensive runs saved, he has +4 outs above average, an above-average jump, and route-running abilities. He also has a decent arm and is in the 68th percentile of arm strength. Overall throughout his career, Kepler has +50 defensive runs saved and +66 outs above average. Since making his debut in 2015, he has the 15th most DRS and fifth most OAA among outfielders.

At Kepler’s best, he is a 20+ home run hitter with a wRC+ of around 120, but he has only reached that plateau twice in his career. Kepler also has six other seasons where his wRC+ has ranged from 93 to 97. Given his strong defense and platoon splits, he’s managed to stay a viable outfield option for the Twins, even in his down seasons. However, if he does require a platoon partner, the next name on today’s list could be that guy.

Randal Grichuk

Randal Grichuk was a thorn in the Pirates’ side for the first handful of seasons of his career. He appeared in parts of four seasons for the St. Louis Cardinals in 2014-2017 and is a career .293/.342/.454 batter vs the Bucs. He also has hit .302/.356/.479 in PNC Park. With Grichuk again hitting free agency, he could be a power bat the Pirates look to sign.

Grichuk is coming off a strong season with the bat, hitting .287/.346/.514 with the Arizona Diamondbacks. He has an isolated slugging over .200 at .227, socking 11 home runs in 272 plate appearances. Grichuk is posting career-best walk and strikeout rates at 7.4% and 16.9%, respectively. It is the first time he has stuck out in less than 20% of his plate appearances in any of his seasons thus far. All told, he has a .367 wOBA and 135 wRC+.

But Grichuk has mostly been used in a part-time role this season. Of the 103 games he has appeared in, he has started in just 60 of them, which is only 58.3%. Over 65% of his plate appearances this year have come against lefty pitchers, but he has demolished them to the tune of a .315/.383/.522 triple-slash and 149 wRC+. When facing a righty, he still has a playable .239/.272/.500 line and 108 wRC+, but most of his damage has clearly been against lefties.

That’s been typical throughout his career as well. Grichuk’s OPS when facing southpaws is nearly 100 points higher than when facing right-handers. Against opposite-handed hurlers, the veteran has hit .273/.324/.508. But, when he has to square off against same-handed pitchers, he bats .242/.288/.448.

Grichuk's Baseball Savant page is also quite promising. His .362 xwOBA nearly matches his wOBA on the year, and is a career-best high water mark. He is also posting his best xSLG% (.491) since 2017, and his best average exit velo (90.4 MPH) since 2018. His 10.4% barrel rate falls in line with his career average of 10.3% as well.

Grichuk has consistently graded out as a solid, albeit unspectacular, defender. He has +2 defensive runs saved and -2 outs above average this year, spending his entire year between the two outfield corners. Grichuk is in the 60th percentile of arm strength. He is also about average when it comes to route running and jump. Throughout his career, he has +10 DRS and +8 OAA.

While Grichuk would likely need a platoon partner, the fact is that he is a solid hitter who has power and can play all three outfield positions. All three things would make him an ideal Bryan Reynolds replacement.

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