3 hot takes about the Pittsburgh Pirates

This off-season hasn't been that bad

I'm not saying this off-season has been incredible. It feels like the Pirates are taking a passive approach, and while it seems like many other teams are doing the same (just look at all the free agents left), that only makes it a little more disappointing that the Pirates haven't tried to fully take advantage of a slow market. But I've seen a handful of people claiming this is the worst off-season the Pirates have had, at least in their recent history. In reality, I think there is some hyperbole there, and it's not as bad as it may seem.

The Pirates have made some solid additions, including acquiring veteran lefty Marco Gonzales and outfielder Edward Olivares via trade. Gonzales has a history of being an innings eater who can provide an above-average ERA. Meanwhile, Olivares is coming off a solid 2023 season and will be playing in a much hitter friendlier park with smaller dimensions than Kauffman Stadium in 2024. That should help both his bat and his glove.

Some of the Pirate free agent signings haven't been terrible either. Of course, there's Andrew McCutchen, but Rowdy Tellez is only one year removed from a 35 home run season. He looked great in April and May last year before suffering a forearm injury.

Martin Perez is also only one year removed from a season where he had an ERA under 3.00. While that doesn't mean I expect Perez to repeat that, he's consistently been a solid lefty starting pitcher for most of his career. Perez made some adjustments in the second half of the year after getting moved to the bullpen. Hopefully, he can parlay that into a starting pitcher role once again. The Pirates deepened an already strong bullpen by adding flamethrower Aroldis Chapman as well.

I also don't think the Pirate off-season has been that much worse than their rivals, if worse at all. The Milwaukee Brewers re-signed Wade Miley and brought in Rhys Hoskins and Jakob Junis, but they also traded Corbin Burnes, Mark Canah, and Tyrone Taylor.

The St. Louis Cardinals' only major addition objectively better than any of the Pirates' moves was signing Sonny Gray. But any of the Pirates' current starting pitching options are better than Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson.

The Chicago Cubs signed Shota Imanaga and Hector Neris and acquired Michael Busch from the LA Dodgers, but that's the extent of their major additions. The Cincinnati Reds have added Jeimer Candelario, Nick Martinez, Frankie Montas, and Brent Suter, but I don't think that's any better than the Pirates' additions of Olivares, Gonzales, Perez, and Chapman.

Again, this isn't the most glamorous off-season the Pirates have ever had. But it's not any worse than last off-season, at the very least. Is Olivares, Gonzales, Tellez, Perez, Chapman, and Yasmani Grandal truly worse than Rich Hill, Carlos Santana, Vince Velasquez, Austin Hedges, Ji-Man Choi, Dauri Moreta, Connor Joe, Jarlin Garcia, and McCutchen? It's somewhat of a half-measure, but it's not the horror story some are trying to make it.

Bubba Chandler's ceiling matches Paul Skenes' ceiling

Paul Skenes was the no. 1 overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, setting the all-time signing bonus record in the process. The Pirates' third-round pick in 2021 was Bubba Chandler, who has one of the highest signing bonuses ever for a third-rounder. Skenes has a sky-high ceiling, one that if he reaches his potential, he'll be not just an ace but one of the best pitchers in all of baseball. I think that if Chandler reaches his ceiling, he'll be right up there with Skenes.

I believe this for a few reasons. Chandler is ultra-athletic. The Pirates took Chandler as a two-way RHP/shortstop in 2021. He even played a few games up the middle for the Pirates' Florida Complex League affiliate in 2021. If the Pirates had kept him as a two-way player, there was a very real chance that Chandler would have stuck at shortstop long-term. A lot of high school shortstops eventually move to second base, third base, or the outfield as they progress through the minor leagues. But Chandler was considered an above-average fielder with plus speed.

On top of that, Chandler wasn't even supposed to go to college for baseball. Not only was he a two-way baseball player, but a two-sport star in college. He was committed to Georgia to play baseball but then decided to go to Clemson for football, where he would have been the team's quarterback. 

While it took a while for Chandler to translate his high-end athleticism to the mound, he did so in the second half of last year. He reduced his walk rate significantly from 12.5% to a mere 7.2% rate. According to Baseball America, Chandler started to locate his off-speed stuff well, leading to a significant decrease in walk rate and posting an ERA of just 1.66 in the second half of the 2023 campaign.

Chandler also has great stuff. His fastball sits in the mid-90s and touches the upper-90s. His slider looks like it could be a plus pitch as well, and his change-up adds a fourth above-average offering. MLB Pipeline also likes his curveball.

Do not take this as a knock on Skenes. I think Skenes is an outstanding pitcher. He is very athletic in his own right, having played some catcher and corner outfield before transferring to LSU for the 2023 college season.

Skenes also throws extremely hard, sitting 97-100 MPH with a nasty slider and a plus change-up. Skenes' command is further developed than Chandler's and is a reason why Chandler has a lower floor than Skenes. But after seeing Chandler's improvements in the second half of 2024, I think we're watching someone with ace potential.

Andrew McCutchen is a Hall of Famer

This one is probably my least hot take. But I still see too many people saying that Andrew McCutchen isn't a Hall of Fame player. I strongly disagree with that notion. I think that McCutchen is going to make the Hall of Fame with ease, and if he stays productive for a few more years, he's only going to support this case.

McCutchen is a career .276/.369/.469 batter with a 128 OPS+. McCutchen has already won multiple awards and has reached multiple different milestones in his career. He has gone to five All-Star Games, has an MVP, four Silver Sluggers, a Gold Glove, 2000+ hits, 200+ stolen bases, and is well within reach of a handful of other statistical milestones, which I went more in-depth with here.

McCutchen is only 1.4 fWAR away from +50 and one home run away from 300. Once he reaches those two milestones, he'll be in some pretty elite company. There have only been two 19 players who played 51%+ of their career games in center field with 2000+ hits and reaching +50 bWAR. A dozen of them are in the Hall of Fame; another is Kenny Lofton, who should be in Cooperstown.

There have also been very few center fielders that have displayed the speed/power McCutchen has in his career. Once he hits his 300th home run, he'll join a club that only has three members: primary center fielders 50+ bWAR, 300+ home runs, and 200+ stolen bases. The only other players to achieve this are Willie Mays, Mike Trout, and Carlos Beltran. But if he keeps his OPS+ above 120, he, Mays, and Trout will be the only ones to have the previous milestones and a 120+ OPS+. He'll also become one of seven other primary CFs with 400+ doubles and 300+ home runs. 

Another milestone Cutch will add to his resume this year is his 3500th total base. Once he reaches that, he'll join another exclusive group of center fielders with that many total bases. Right now, only 18 have done it, and half are in the Hall of Fame.

Some other noteworthy career achievements include finishing fourth in Rookie of the Year voting in 2009, finishing in the top five in MVP voting for four straight seasons from 2012 through 2015, winning the Roberto Clemente award in 2015, and representing Team USA in the 2017 Baseball World Classic, which they won that year. Cutch led the league in hits during '12, OBP, OPS, and OPS+ in 2014 and had the 8th most bWAR among any position player in the 2010s at +42.3.

The YouTube channel Stark Raving Sports recently made a video talking about Cutch's Hall of Fame candidacy, and they made a really good point that I love to make every time this conversation arises: everyone uses the character clause to keep players out of the Hall, but never to put a player in the Hall. No one deserves a boost in their Hall candidacy because of their personality, loyalty, leadership ability, and off-field charity work than Andrew McCutchen. He's the closest thing to Mr. Rogers baseball has.

At this point, I think the only question to ask is when McCutchen will get into Cooperstown, as opposed to if he'll reach Cooperstown. He's had an extremely successful career, and he's not done yet. Once he reaches some of the milestones that are very much in reach of him, he'll punch his ticket to a Hall of Fame plaque.