4 Pittsburgh Pirates prospects who are having unlucky (but promising) seasons

Luck can be a big factor in baseball. A line drive with 100 miles per hour worth of exit velocity doesn't always fall for a hit, just like a blooper 70 MPH off the bat doesn't always find a glove. Perfectly executed pitches are taken deep every day, and pitches down the middle are swung and missed at routinely. In some cases, luck can greatly affect a player's bottom line. But in the minor leagues, the bottom line results aren't always the best indicator of talent when evaluating prospects.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have some decent talent throughout their minor league system, and many of these talented players haven't had good luck on their side this season. In some cases, it's been starkly the opposite. Some have great peripherals with decent stuff, but haven't had the results to show for it yet.  Some are having strong seasons, even if their ERA doesn't say so.

4 Pirates prospects experiencing unlucky 2024 seasons

Michael Kennedy

When you think of the Pirates' best pitching prospects, many think of Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, and Braxton Ashcraft, but Michael Kennedy seems to get overlooked. Kennedy has had a solid year for the Bradenton Marauders in his first extended look of playing time. His promotion to Greensboro was well deserved.

Prior to getting bumped to Greensboro, Kennedy had a 4.07 ERA, but a 3.72 FIP, and 1.12 WHIP. While Kennedy's ERA was above 4.00, there were many promising aspects to his game that could help him improve at High-A. Kennedy had a 26.6% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. His BB% is the seventh-best among pitchers at A-Ball with at least 12 games started. The young southpaw's 5.00 K:BB ratio is also top 10 at the level (seventh).

Kennedy's 0.99 HR/9 is respectable, but could be better. His HR/FB ratio was 12.1%, which is a tad high. He managed an 87.2 MPH average exit velocity and 5.1% barrel rate. Kennedy also got his fair share of swings and misses with a 32.3% whiff rate. All three were above-average marks at the A-ball level.

Kennedy also produced large differences between some of his expected stats and bottom line numbers. Baseball Savant pinned his opponent xSLG% at .317 when they actually managed a .396 mark. His opponent wOBA was .300, but their xwOBA was just .259. The only pitcher with a larger discrepancy between their xwOBA and xSLG% and their actual wOBA and SLG% for the Marauders is another fellow Kennedy, Tyler Kennedy (no relation).

Kennedy only throws around 90 MPH currently, but batters have just a .287 xwOBA off his four-seamer. His slider has induced a swing and miss over a 40% of the time, with a 41.9% whiff rate. Kennedy's third offering is a low-80s changeup, which gets swings and misses over a third of the time (36.4%). He has yet to allow a barreled-up batted ball with that pitch.

Kennedy is one of the more exciting pitchers in the Pirates' system to watch, even if he doesn't have overpowering stuff. He makes it work and has shown plus control thus far. Kennedy is only 19, so for him to be at High-A is impressive on its own. He should definitely move up prospect rankings at the end of this year.

Jaden Woods

Jaden Woods was a 2023 draft pick and one of the Pirates' best relief prospects. While Woods hasn't induced the results he likely would have wanted, his stuff backs his peripherals up. With the Pirates lacking any left-handed bullpen depth under control for 2025, Woods could potentially play a role in the Bucs' bullpen sometime next year.

Woods has pitched 52.1 innings between Greensboro and Altoona with a 4.30 ERA on the year, but he has struck out nearly 30% of his opponents, with a 29.2% strikeout rate and a solid 0.86 HR/9. His walk rate sits at 11%, but there are multiple reasons that he could improve upon his ERA.

Woods has a .344 batting average on balls in play while having a 21.4% line drive rate, 44.3% ground ball rate, and 34.4% flyball rate. He has been particularly unlucky with batted balls since reaching Double-A, with a .386 mark. Despite that high BABIP, he's giving up fewer liners and inducing more ground balls.

Woods has the best fastball of any of the prospects examined in this piece. As a reliever, he sits mid-90s with his fastball. His slider has also flashed above-average potential. Woods will occasionally fold in a changeup, but it's clearly behind his fastball/slider and is the main reason why he will likely remain in the bullpen long-term.

Woods is only 22 and is already at Double-A. The Pirates don't have any lefty relievers currently under contract for the 2025 season. While Woods may not break camp with the team, if he continues to show promise in the upper levels of the minor leagues, he could potentially be a factor in the bullpen sometime during next season. 

Antwone Kelly

Antwone Kelly was an international signee in the 2020-2021 offseason by the Bucs. He displayed some talent at the Dominican Summer League and Florida Complex League in his first three pro seasons. The 20-year-old right-hander opened the 2024 season at A-Ball Bradenton for his first extended look. There have been some bumps in the road, but Kelly could definitely get better through the natural bounce back of better luck.

Kelly's numbers on the year include a 3.90 ERA, 4.44 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP. He has struck out 23% of opponents faced, sporting a 10.2% walk rate and 1.01 HR/9. Kelly has a grounder rate of 45.9%, along with a sub-20% line drive rate. Aside from his home run rate, Kelly has been about a league-average pitcher in the Florida State League, but there is definitely more in the tank for him.

Kelly already holds opposing hitters to a .224 batting average, but his .199 xBA and 86.5 MPH exit velo indicate he could give up fewer hits if things were to normalize. There is also a fairly large gap between his opponents' .371 slugging percentage and the .300 xSLG% he's induced. His 5.2% barrel rate is above average, which should help him allow fewer home runs moving forward.

Kelly sits around 94 MPH with his four-seam fastball, but tops out in the upper-90s. He'll also throw a two-seam variant with more horizontal action, but roughly the same velo. His mid-80s changeup is where he gets most of his swings and misses, with a whiff rate of over 35%. Kelly's upper-80s cutter and lower-80s slider round out his pitch mix.

Kelly is an underrated arm in the Pirates' system. He has some velo on his offerings and a decent pitch variety. So far this year, he's shown some promise. Next year will only be his age-21 campaign, and he should open the year at Greensboro, given his numbers at Bradenton this season.