4 Pittsburgh Pirates prospects who are having unlucky (but promising) seasons

Luck can be a big factor in baseball. A line drive with 100 miles per hour worth of exit velocity doesn't always fall for a hit, just like a blooper 70 MPH off the bat doesn't always find a glove. Perfectly executed pitches are taken deep every day, and pitches down the middle are swung and missed at routinely. In some cases, luck can greatly affect a player's bottom line. But in the minor leagues, the bottom line results aren't always the best indicator of talent when evaluating prospects.

The Pittsburgh Pirates have some decent talent throughout their minor league system, and many of these talented players haven't had good luck on their side this season. In some cases, it's been starkly the opposite. Some have great peripherals with decent stuff, but haven't had the results to show for it yet.  Some are having strong seasons, even if their ERA doesn't say so.

4 Pirates prospects experiencing unlucky 2024 seasons

Michael Kennedy

When you think of the Pirates' best pitching prospects, many think of Bubba Chandler, Thomas Harrington, and Braxton Ashcraft, but Michael Kennedy seems to get overlooked. Kennedy has had a solid year for the Bradenton Marauders in his first extended look of playing time. His promotion to Greensboro was well deserved.

Prior to getting bumped to Greensboro, Kennedy had a 4.07 ERA, but a 3.72 FIP, and 1.12 WHIP. While Kennedy's ERA was above 4.00, there were many promising aspects to his game that could help him improve at High-A. Kennedy had a 26.6% strikeout rate and a 5.3% walk rate. His BB% is the seventh-best among pitchers at A-Ball with at least 12 games started. The young southpaw's 5.00 K:BB ratio is also top 10 at the level (seventh).

Kennedy's 0.99 HR/9 is respectable, but could be better. His HR/FB ratio was 12.1%, which is a tad high. He managed an 87.2 MPH average exit velocity and 5.1% barrel rate. Kennedy also got his fair share of swings and misses with a 32.3% whiff rate. All three were above-average marks at the A-ball level.

Kennedy also produced large differences between some of his expected stats and bottom line numbers. Baseball Savant pinned his opponent xSLG% at .317 when they actually managed a .396 mark. His opponent wOBA was .300, but their xwOBA was just .259. The only pitcher with a larger discrepancy between their xwOBA and xSLG% and their actual wOBA and SLG% for the Marauders is another fellow Kennedy, Tyler Kennedy (no relation).

Kennedy only throws around 90 MPH currently, but batters have just a .287 xwOBA off his four-seamer. His slider has induced a swing and miss over a 40% of the time, with a 41.9% whiff rate. Kennedy's third offering is a low-80s changeup, which gets swings and misses over a third of the time (36.4%). He has yet to allow a barreled-up batted ball with that pitch.

Kennedy is one of the more exciting pitchers in the Pirates' system to watch, even if he doesn't have overpowering stuff. He makes it work and has shown plus control thus far. Kennedy is only 19, so for him to be at High-A is impressive on its own. He should definitely move up prospect rankings at the end of this year.

Scott Randall

The Pirates acquired Scott Randall in a small-time trade with the Arizona Diamondbacks for utility man Diego Castillo. The right-hander missed most of 2023 due to injuries, but he is back in action this year and has pitched across four different levels of the Pirates' minor-league system. Although his surface numbers may not look great, Randall has some intriguing peripherals that should definitely be noted.

Randall has a 5.05 ERA in 46.1 innings. He has worked as a swingman, making eight starts in 16 appearances this year. His ERA isn't pretty, but he has a respectable 24% strikeout rate with a walk rate of just 3.6%. His K:BB ratio is 6.57, the third highest among any Pirates' minor-league pitcher with eight or more starts. Randall has also only allowed three homers, resulting in a HR/9 rate of 0.53.

Randall has had some bad luck going his way. He sports an unsightly .343 batting average on balls in play. His ground ball rate is a solid 45.9%, while his line drive rate is under 20% at 19.3%. Randall has an FIP of just 3.01, which is the second-largest gap between ERA and FIP among Pirates minor-league pitchers with 40+ IP. His xFIP is also strong at 3.43.

Randall is already 26, and while he may not be a top prospect, you can't deny the quality peripherals he is putting up. He is already at Double-A and has a chance to play at least one game with every Pirates minor-league team (aside from their DSL affiliates) in one season. 

Antwone Kelly

Antwone Kelly was an international signee in the 2020-2021 offseason by the Bucs. He displayed some talent at the Dominican Summer League and Florida Complex League in his first three pro seasons. The 20-year-old right-hander opened the 2024 season at A-Ball Bradenton for his first extended look. There have been some bumps in the road, but Kelly could definitely get better through the natural bounce back of better luck.

Kelly's numbers on the year include a 3.90 ERA, 4.44 FIP, and 1.27 WHIP. He has struck out 23% of opponents faced, sporting a 10.2% walk rate and 1.01 HR/9. Kelly has a grounder rate of 45.9%, along with a sub-20% line drive rate. Aside from his home run rate, Kelly has been about a league-average pitcher in the Florida State League, but there is definitely more in the tank for him.

Kelly already holds opposing hitters to a .224 batting average, but his .199 xBA and 86.5 MPH exit velo indicate he could give up fewer hits if things were to normalize. There is also a fairly large gap between his opponents' .371 slugging percentage and the .300 xSLG% he's induced. His 5.2% barrel rate is above average, which should help him allow fewer home runs moving forward.

Kelly sits around 94 MPH with his four-seam fastball, but tops out in the upper-90s. He'll also throw a two-seam variant with more horizontal action, but roughly the same velo. His mid-80s changeup is where he gets most of his swings and misses, with a whiff rate of over 35%. Kelly's upper-80s cutter and lower-80s slider round out his pitch mix.

Kelly is an underrated arm in the Pirates' system. He has some velo on his offerings and a decent pitch variety. So far this year, he's shown some promise. Next year will only be his age-21 campaign, and he should open the year at Greensboro, given his numbers at Bradenton this season.