5 Pittsburgh Pirates prospects who are turning their seasons around

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A lot of players struggle to get off to good starts, no matter the circumstances. It can sometimes take a month or even two to get things going. Just look at Pittsburgh Pirates’ first baseman Rowdy Tellez, who’s been on fire since the start of June after a horrid May. A lot of other players have also turned their seasons in the big leagues around, like Austin Riley, Andrew Vaughn, and Randy Arozarena, all three of whom had a sub-.700 OPS at the end of May.

Below the surface this year, the Pirates had many top prospects who did not get off to the starts they wanted. As we head further into the second half of the season, it seems like some of said prospects may have found something that works for them and are now hitting or pitching significantly better than they were at the start of the year. Hopefully, they keep it up and finish the season strong, but as of right now, it looks like they’re rebounding from what first looked like a dismal season.

Pirates prospects who've rebounded heading into second half of 2024

Termarr Johnson

A lot of opinions seemed to have soured over Termarr Johnson since the Pirates took him fourth overall in the 2022 draft. Some of that is because of his poor start to the year. Johnson is now doing everything in his power to win back the opinions of prospect lists, as well as put himself back on the map as a name to watch.

Greensboro played a doubleheader on May 18, and after the first game, Johnson was batting .183/.383/.254. He still had an above-average 102 wRC+ and was drawing nearly as many walks (22.1%) as he was striking out (22.7%), but he wasn’t hitting for much power, with a sub-.100 isolated slugging percentage. Johnson was getting bogged down with bad batted ball luck with a .241 batting average on balls in play, but it certainly wasn’t the start he was looking for.

But since going 2-for-4 with two doubles and a walk in the second game of that doubleheader, Johnson hasn’t looked back. He is slashing .288/.404/.484. While Johnson is walking less frequently, with a 14.9% walk rate, that’s still elite. He’s also whittled his K% down to 20.7% in this stretch. But the big turnaround has been in the power department. Johnson has hit seven home runs and has a .196 isolated slugging percentage. All told, he has a .408 wOBA and 149 wRC+ over his last 183 plate appearances.

Johnson hitting as well as he is shouldn’t be a massive surprise. He’s super talented, and him having a wRC+ of nearly 150 is proof of that. Hopefully, he can keep it up the rest of the way. If he keeps hitting anything like he has since May 18, you might even see him get a taste of Double-A pitching before the season is over.

Mitch Jebb

The Pirates took Mitch Jebb after they selected Paul Skenes in the 2023 draft. Jebb came out of college as a heavily contact-focused hitter, predictating his game on not striking out, hitting for a good batting average, and drawing some walks. Plus, he’s fast and uses his ability to reach base to its fullest potential. But the first few months of the 2024 season weren’t good for the infield prospect, who started his year out at Greensboro.

At the end of May, Jebb was batting just .200/.264/.300. Not hitting for much power wasn’t a massive surprise, but Jebb striking out over a quarter of the time was; a player with his skill set should never be sporting a 26.3% K%. Jebb also didn’t walk at a high rate, with an 8% BB%. While his .255 batting average on balls in play didn’t do him any favors, it doesn’t take away from the fact he was striking out way more often than expected. When everything was said and done, he had just a .311 wOBA and 89 wRC+ when the month wrapped.

Things have seemed to start to click for Jebb as he headed into June. He has now hit .267/.427/.344 with a .378 wOBA and 131 wRC+ over his last 119 plate appearances. He’s now drawing far more walks with a 20.3% BB%, and he’s also cut his strikeouts down significantly to just 19.3%. Sure, he’s not hitting for any power still, but that’s to be expected. Jebb has been both aggressive and successful on the basepaths as well, attempting 13 steals and swiping the bag a dozen times.

Jebb is hitting much closer to expectations now. He’s not striking out frequently, is hitting for contact, and is also drawing walks at a much higher rate. With Jebb’s speed, his OBP currently being above .400 makes him a valuable member of Greensboro’s lineup and hopefully, someday, the Pirates’ as well.

Lonnie White Jr.

Lonnie White Jr. showed a ton of potential in 2023. He finally played enough to get an extended look and put up a 139 wRC+ between the Pirates’ Florida Complex League affiliate and A-Ball Bradenton. The Pirates made the bold move to send White Jr. to High-A despite only having 200 plate appearances with Bradenton the year prior. For a while, White Jr. looked overmatched for High-A.

At the end of May, White Jr. was batting .164/.270/.367. He was striking out just over a third of the time with a 33.7% K%, and he also wasn’t walking a ton with an 8.1% walk rate. Of the few silver linings, White Jr. was at least hitting for some power with a .203 isolated slugging percentage, but that still resulted in a wRC+ of just 80 and a sub-.300 wOBA. A batting average on balls in play below .200 was not helping White Jr. out at all, but it’s still worrisome when he’s not walking a ton and is striking out often.

But since that point, White Jr. put together a nice month of May. He upped his line to a .236/.337/.486 triple slash. He’s also hit for more pop, with a .250 isolated slugging, and has begun drawing more walks with a 10.8% BB%. Strikeouts are still giving him some trouble, with a 27.7% K%, but it’s an improvement over what he had in April and May. All told, White Jr. has a .372 wOBA and 127 wRC+. White Jr. ended June on an extremely high note with a 1.152 OPS, .506 wOBA, 210 wRC+, and a sub-25% K% through his last 47 plate appearances.

White Jr. unfortunately landed on the injured list at the start of July. What he was doing in June was extremely promising. Hopefully, he will not be out too long, and he can pick up where he left off with his impressive month of June.

Tsung-Che Cheng

Tsung-Che Cheng is another prospect who projects similarly to Mitch Jebb. Although he might not hit for much power, he should have a good hit tool, get on base at a quality rate, and use his speed to put himself into scoring position. Still, his numbers at Double-A as late as May 30 were not pretty.

Cheng was only batting .210/.335/.336 with a .319 wOBA and 98 wRC+. Although these were not terrible numbers, they also weren’t good. Cheng was hitting for little power, with a .126 isolated slugging percentage, but more worrisome was his 24% strikeout rate. Like with some other names on today’s list, his BABIP was holding him back at .255, but overall, the only positive was his 14% walk rate.

On May 31, Cheng went 1-for-4 with a walk, and has continued to hit relatively well since. Over his last 116 plate appearances, the infielder is now hitting .290/.335/.480. Cheng is hitting for more power with a .190 isolated slugging percentage. The one thing that stands out is his 8.6% walk rate and 25% strikeout rate, both of which moved in the wrong direction since his early season struggles, but Cheng still has a strong .372 wOBA and 132 wRC+.

Cheng is yet another middle infield prospect the Pirates have in their system. Hopefully, they will unload some of their pitching and middle infielders at the end of July for some outfield help. Either way, Cheng has done really well, which is promising after he had both an inconsistent stint at Double-A last year and a poor start to 2024.

Po-Yu Chen

Po-Yu Chen entered the year as an underrated pitching prospect. He was overshadowed by the likes of Bubba Chandler, Anthony Solometo, and Thomas Harrington, all of whom were in the same starting five. Chen looked completely lost on the mound as he headed into the second half of May, but he’s seemingly put things back on track.

Chen’s first 35.1 innings yielded a 6.11 ERA, 5.87 FIP, and 1.47 WHIP. While he had a solid 8% walk rate, he was almost never striking out batters with a 10.5% K%. That was a massive drop from his 24.5% K% at the end of last year at Greensboro. Along with that, he was somewhat susceptible to home runs; Chen had a 1.27 HR/9.

But since his outing on May 21, it’s been smooth sailing for the Taiwanese right-hander. His last 40.2 innings have seen him work to the tune of a 2.88 ERA, 4.30 FIP, and 1.20 WHIP. Chen is still not striking out a ton of batters, but his 18.7% K% is a massive improvement from what he had been putting up at the start of the year. He still has a solid 8.4% walk rate, but he’s been much better at limiting home runs. He’s cut his HR/9 down by nearly half to 0.66.

Chen is still getting overshadowed, as both Chandler and Harrington have had extremely good seasons, but Altoona has many good pitchers to watch, and Chen is one of them. He’s on the younger side, as he’s only 22, but he’s someone to keep an eye on as the season progresses. He’s put up an ERA under 3.00 over the last month and could be yet another future rotation option for the Bucs.

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