5 trade targets that would make Pittsburgh Pirates potential NL Central contenders

A.J. Puk

A.J. Puk was a former top prospect who had injuries that forced him to the bullpen. He produced some solid numbers in 2022 and 2023 for the Oakland Athletics and Miami Marlins, posting a 3.51 ERA, 3.64 FIP, and 1.16 WHIP. Puk struck out nearly 30% of opponents between these two years with a 29.4% K%, while also owning a quality 6.9% walk rate. Puk was home run prone, however, with a 1.24 HR/9 rate.

But the numbers this year haven’t been as pretty. Puk still has a solid 3.96 FIP, but his ERA is at 4.73. His strikeout rate has plummeted to just 21.5%, while his walk rate has rocketed up to 12.4%. He’s allowing fewer home runs with an 0.68 HR/9, but he sports a garish WHIP of 1.43, another massive step down compared to 2022-2023. 

Luckily, those numbers don’t tell the whole story. Puk started the year in the Marlins’ rotation, where he struggled mightily. He only made four starts, one of which was against the Pirates, and allowed 14 earned runs while walking (17) more batters than he struck out (12) in only 13.2 innings pitched. Puk was moved back to the bullpen at the end of April, and not only has he gotten things back on track, but he’s pitching even better than he did in 2022 and 2023.

Puk’s last 26.1 innings pitched have seen him produce a 2.39 ERA, 2.74 FIP, and 0.80 WHIP. The lefty has walked just 5% of opponents with a healthy 26% K%. With such a low walk rate, combined with an above-average strikeout rate, Puk has a K:BB ratio of 5.20. Puk has only allowed home runs at an 0.68 HR/9 rate. He’s been immune to both hard and quality contact as well. Puk has an exit velocity of just 87.5 MPH with a barrel rate of 2.9% as a reliever.

Puk has been one of the best lefty relievers this year. He ranks top ten in FIP (7th), K:BB ratio (5th), and walk rate (6th) among LHRP with at least 25 IP. Among lefty bullpen arms who have faced at least 75 batters out of the pen, Puk has the 4th lowest barrel rate. Puk has also been solid late into games with a 3.52 ERA and 3.42 FIP while holding opponents to a wOBA of just .265 in the 7th inning or later. His WPA (or win percentage added) as a reliever is +0.42.

The Pirates’ bullpen has been better recently. Since the start of June, they own a 4.15 ERA, 3.37 FIP, and 1.30 WHIP. Their 22.5% K% might not jump off the page, but their 7.7% walk rate is the 9th best in this stretch, with the second lowest home run rate at 0.66. However, this pen could still use some depth.

Puk can fill a higher-leverage role. The Pirates have only had one lefty all year who has been able to serve as a higher-leverage reliever, and that’s been Aroldis Chapman. Ryan Borucki could soon take some of the load off of Chapman, but having another pitcher who can take the mound in late/close games would be wise. Puk saved 15 games last year as well, so he has experience as a closer and could occasionally see some save opportunities when David Bednar isn’t available. 

Another positive is that Puk is controlled via arbitration through 2026. Both Chapman and Borucki hit free agency at the end of the year, so by acquiring Puk, the Pirates would guarantee themselves a quality lefty reliever in the event that one or both would leave in free agency. Puk has been a good left-handed bullpen arm for three years now, and he’s pitching even better this year than in his last two campaigns.