A look at Paul Skenes' potential workload for the rest of 2024 with Pirates

Paul Skenes is having one of the best seasons ever for a rookie pitcher. Since integration and the first Rookie of the Year award, Skenes’ 2.83 ERA is the third best mark among rookie pitchers with at least 15 games started in their first season.

Even better is his league/park-adjusted ERA+, which sits at 180. That is the best ever by a rookie in 15+ starts. He also has the lowest WHIP and ranks top 10 in K/9 (11.1) and K:BB ratio (5.04). He is just one of three rookies with an ERA+ of 150 or better to make the All-Star Game, alongside the late Mark Fidrych and Jose Fernandez.

But one of the biggest questions on every Pittsburgh Pirates’ fans’ mind entering this year is how many innings would we see him pitch. After throwing 129 1/3 innings between Louisiana State University and the Pirates’ minor league system, many are wondering just how many more starts we will get from Skenes as we head into the homestretch of the 2024 campaign.

It's reasonable to expect around 150-160 innings pitched for the right-hander this year. That would only be a 20 2/3 - 30 2/3 inning uptick from last year. He has pitched 98 in MLB, along with 27 1/3 at Triple-A this season. That comes out to a total of 125 1/3 IP, which would be just shy of his 2023 total. Assuming the Pirates do not rebound and are not in the playoff chase in September, that would mean Skenes has somewhere around that aforementioned increase left.

Skenes averages about six innings a start this year since being called up. Once again, if we assume the Pirates want him to fit somewhere between 150-160 innings this year, that means he has about 4-5 starts left in him. The Pirates have been giving Skenes five days of rest all year, so at this rate he should be able to pitch into early/mid-September. 

There are ways the Pirates can work around this if they want Skenes still making starts farther down the stretch. Skenes doesn’t need to go six innings every time. That type of load management could potentially give him the room to fit an additional start or two in this season. The Pirates could also promote Bubba Chandler or Thomas Harrington to give him a sixth day off and further prolong his season.

The Pirates have also stated they want him (along with fellow flamethrowing rookie Jared Jones) to pitch the entire year. Right now, it’s reasonable to expect Skenes to at least still be pitching into mid-September. Even if it’s an entirely lost season by then, it’s more important to get him stretched out for next year. Cutting him off now would basically mean no progress was made in his season-to-season workload, and it'd be a shame if they didn't help one of the league's most exciting players build upon an historic showing.