A way-too-early Pittsburgh Pirates trade target wishlist for 2024-25 offseason

The Pirates should be active in the trade market this offseason, so let's take a look at some way too early trade targets.

Sep 10, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Los Angeles Angels left fielder Taylor Ward (3) reacts to hitting a RBI single during the fifth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images
Sep 10, 2024; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Los Angeles Angels left fielder Taylor Ward (3) reacts to hitting a RBI single during the fifth inning against the Minnesota Twins at Target Field. Mandatory Credit: Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images | Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images
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Andrew Nardi

The Pirates have no left-handed relievers under contract for next season. While they might have a good foundation in the pen, they need to build off of that. Miami Marlins lefty Andrew Nardi could potentially be on the market, and if he is, the Pirates should see what it would cost to acquire him via trade.

Nardi’s 5.07 ERA isn’t nearly as bad as it may seem. He has struck out exactly a third of his opponents with a walk rate of 8.6%. He has been somewhat prone to home runs, however, with a 1.26 HR/9 rate. Luckily, there are plenty of underlying statistics that paint him in an outstanding light.

Nardi has a 3.33 FIP and 3.36 xFIP, but he has a sub-3.00 SIERA (2.78) and xERA (2.75). He has an above-average 7.4% barrel rate, and is above the 90th percentile of xERA, xBA (.196), and chase rate (33.3%). Nardi has induced swings and misses just over 30% of the time, with a 31.1% whiff rate. He also has a career 107 Stuff+ rating.

Nardi’s high ERA is inflated by a .325 batting average on balls in play. The Pirates’ defense isn’t otherworldly, but it’s significantly better than the Marlins' unit. The Pirates have -12 defensive runs saved, -18 outs above average, and their catchers have +2.1 framing runs. Meanwhile, the Marlins have -30 DRS, -32 OAA, and +1.1 framing runs. Plus, the Pirates’ defense will be better if Oneil Cruz continues to look this good in center field, Reynolds moves to first base, and they bring in a better defender in left.

The most difficult part of making a trade with the Marlins might be convincing them to accept pitching prospects in a return package. 11 of their top prospects on MLB Pipeline are pitchers, and they had four pitchers make double-digit starts who were age-25 or younger this season. The Marlins seemed to put a high emphasis on young position players at the deadline. Of the 15 prospects they acquired during this year's trade deadline, only a third were pitchers. Of course, their tune may change by this offseason, and the Pirates do have some young position players they could deal from, besides Termarr Johnson or Konnor Griffin.

Nardi doesn’t become a free agent until after the 2028 season. If the Pirates opt to scour the trade market for a lefty arm, then Nardi would present the best option, assuming the Marlins are willing to sell him. He has good numbers and control well beyond 2025, giving them someone who could be in the bullpen for quite some time.

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