After winning home stand, Pirates shift focus to division rival Cardinals

After taking four of six games from the Los Angeles Dodgers and Minnesota Twins, there is some slightly reinvigorated life surrounding the Pittsburgh Pirates as they enter this week with a 31-34 record.

While its still early in the month of June, the Pirates have played some strong baseball this month, especially offensively, averaging 5.25 runs per game. The starting pitching has still been strong, and the bullpen has been better after struggling for much of the season.

That being said, despite the 31-34 record, the Pirates still find themselves fifth, technically, in the NL Central, 7.5 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers. Thanks to MLB's recent playoff evolutions, though, they are just one game back of the Wild Card as the San Francisco Giants, with a 33-34 record, are currently the third Wild Card team.

Notably, there are six teams all within two games of the final Wild Card spot, and four of them are from the NL Central. Yes, that's correct, as of June 11, 2024, all five NL Central teams are either in the playoffs or within two games of a playoff spot, which could create an exciting race as the calendar guides us through the summer, past the trade deadline, and into the final two months of the regular season.

One of those teams ahead of the Pirates is, of course, the St. Louis Cardinals, who the Pirates will now get to an opportunity to jump in the standings this week.

The Cardinals enter this week with a 31-33 record, a half-game back of the final NL Wild Card spot and seven games back of the Milwaukee Brewers. It's currently a three-way tie for second place in the Central; the Chicago Cubs and Cincinnati Reds are tied with the Cardinals in the games back category at seven. All three are just half-game up on the Pirates.

The Cardinals are 4-6 in their last 10 games, losing a pair of series to the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros before splitting a four-game series in Colorado over the weekend.

The Cardinals offense has been one of the worst in the National League, with the only hitting stat in which they're not ranked in the bottom five being strikeouts with 540, good enough for eighth-best in the league. Their pitching, on the other hand, has been mostly solid, but by no means great.

That being said, Tuesday also marks just 50 days until the MLB Trade Deadline, slightly raising the stakes of each game from this point on. Over the next 50 days, the pretenders and contenders will be sorted out, and we should slowly get a better idea of which organizations will find themselves being buyers at the deadline and which will be heading down the opposite path and selling.

While the Pirates are unlikely to be major players at the trade deadline in either direction, if they do buy, it will be marginal, around-the-edges-type acquisitions. The Cardinals, on the other hand, have plenty of big names that they could potentially offload in a selling situation, and do have some firepower to go out and acquire quality additions if they choose to be buyers.

With all of those implications in mind, this week's series between the Pirates and Cardinals will begin this important 50-day stretch for both teams.

Let's take a look at this week's pitching matchups.

PROJECTED STARTERS

Fans in St. Louis should be treated to some quality pitching matchups this week. Here are the projected starters for the three-game series.

TUESDAY: Paul Skenes vs Miles Mikolas

It's every Pirates fan's favorite day of the week: Paul Skenes Day on Tuesday. The rookie right-hander enters Tuesday evening with a 3-0 record and a 3.00 ERA through five starts and 27 innings pitched. He has struck out 38 so far in his time on the mound while walking six, a strikeout to walk ratio of 6.33. Last time out against the Dodgers, Skenes was impressive, allowing three runs in five innings while striking out eight. It was the most earned runs he'd allowed since his debut last month against the Chicago Cubs, but overall, the righty posted an impressive performance against a very good Dodgers lineup.

For the Cardinals, Miles Mikolas will take the mound, sporting a 5.32 ERA in 13 starts. He has pitched slightly better than the numbers indicate, posting a FIP of 4.53; however, his ERA+ entering the start is still sitting at a meager 77. He's been solid overall in his last five starts, though,allowing three earned runs or less in each start while going six innings in four of the five outings. He's been getting hit around, allowing 77 hits in 71 innings pitched, but hasn't walked many, with just 14 free passes. He's sporting a 1.8 BB/9, which is his career average.

Notably, Rowdy Tellez, Ke'Bryan Hayes, and Bryan Reynolds all have quality career numbers against Mikolas in their careers.

WEDNESDAY: Bailey Falter vs Sonny Gray

On Wednesday, Bailey Falter will look to bounce back from a tough outing against the Dodgers in which he allowed five earned runs in four innings of work, surrendering eight hits and a pair of walks. It was his worst outing of the season since April when he allowed five runs in five innings against the Oakland Athletics. He also allowed six runs in four innings in his season debut back on March 31 against the Miami Marlins.

In his nine other starts this season, though, Falter has been very good, pitching at lest five innings in each start while allowing three runs or less (and accumulating 1.7 bWAR along the way). He gets a favorable matchup on Wednesday against a Cardinals offense that just doesn't hit the ball hard on a consistent basis.

In his first season with the Cardinals, Sonny Gray has been very good, but has been roughed up a bit in four of his last six. After allowing just there earned runs in his first five starts of the season, Gray has allowed 19 earned runs, posting a 5.46 ERA in that time span. In his last two starts against the Phillies and Rockies, he allowed four earned runs and three earned runs in 5.0 innings and 4.2 innings respectively.

THURSDAY: Mitch Keller vs Lance Lynn

There are not many pitchers in baseball that are as hot as Mitch Keller is right now. The right-hander, who received a five-year, $77 million extension this spring, has been outright dominant since the beginning of May, posting a 1.13 ERA in six starts and 39.2 innings pitched. The Pirates have won each of those six starts. Additionally, in that time span, he has 35 strikeouts to just seven walks and has allowed one home run.

Lance Lynn is back in the National League Central with the Cardinals. The 37-year old right-hander has been pitching solid throughout his first 13 starts, with a 3.58 ERA and 3.99 FIP in 65.1 innings pitched. After a really strong April, posting a 2.64 ERA in six starts, he has come back down to Earth a bit, with a 4.41 ERA in his last seven games (though his FIP is still a solid 3.32 in that stretch).

Overall, he's done a solid job of limiting the long ball, something that plagued him last season when he allowed a major league-leading 44 home runs in 32 starts. Over the weekend in Colorado, he was hit around a bit, allowing four earned runs on six hits and two walks in four innings of work.