An early look at Bubba Chandler's chances of making Pittsburgh Pirates' Opening Day roster

2021 third-round pick Bubba Chandler has become one of the best prospects in baseball. MLB Pipeline ranks him as the 38th best prospect in the game, while Baseball America ranks him 21st, and FanGraphs sees him as the 20th best. After a great start to the year for Altoona, Chandler has only gotten stronger at Triple-A Indianapolis.

Chandler has tossed 39.1 innings for Indy, working to the tune of a 1.83 ERA, 2.78 FIP, and 1.04 WHIP. Chandler’s 9.4% walk rate is the only minor blemish on his report card since his last promotion, but he’s counteracted that with a 34% strikeout rate. He has been immune to home runs as well, with a HR/9 rate of 0.46. But with that outstanding performance, the question now becomes: will the Pittsburgh Pirates open the year with the top prospect in their starting rotation next season?

Many have made comparisons to Jared Jones this year (including me ealier this season). Like Chandler, Jones was also coming off his best minor-league season (although Chandler has been significantly more dominant than Jones ever was), and an ultra-dominant preseason gave Jones the opportunity to start the campaign as one of the Pittsburgh Pirates’ starters.

But after a full year, it’s not a one-for-one comparison. Next year, assuming there are no huge injuries, the Pirates will start the season with Paul Skenes, Mitch Keller, and Jones as their 1-through-3. They have much more depth than last year. Luis Ortiz and Bailey Falter have provided the Pirates with solid seasons, while fellow top prospect Thomas Harrington continued to climb the minor league ladder behind them. Braxton Ashcraft and Mike Burrows are on the 40-man roster, and Johan Oviedo will return to action next year.

Will Pirates' 2025 Opening Day rotation be able to fit Bubba Chandler?

Last year, when the Pirates broke camp with Jones as part of their active roster, Mitch Keller was the frontline starter, with Martin Perez as the second arm. Jones, then Marco Gonzales, and an unproven Bailey Falter rounded out the rotation. Luis Ortiz had yet to prove himself, and Roansy Contreras was even under consideration during spring training. The difference in depth from 2024 to 2025 will be huge.

But, as stated earlier, the difference in performance is also enormous. Sure, Jones had a solid season at Triple-A last year, but Chandler has been next to untouchable since reaching the highest level of the minor leagues. Among the Triple-A pitchers with at least five starts and 35 IPs this season, Chandler has the best ERA and FIP, second-lowest batting average against, third-best strikeout rate, and fifth-best WHIP.

Chandler could alternatively be given a similar treatment to Paul Skenes, who was promoted and made his MLB debut on May 11. Again, it’s not a one-for-one comparison. Chandler pitched over 100 innings last year and has logged nearly 120 frames this season. Entering this season, Skenes had pitched less than 10 innings as a professional baseball player. Service time aside, almost no player is going straight from college to the bigs with less than 10 innings as a pro pitcher 

However, the Pirates may look to try and secure that extra year of control over Chandler by promoting him in early May. The Pirates don’t absolutely need to have Chandler in the rotation next year. A starting five of Skenes, Jones, Keller, and then some mix of Ortiz, Falter, Burrows, or Ashcraft will more than suffice for the first month of the season.

So what route should the Pirates go? If the Pirates want to enter the year with the best rotation they could possibly assemble, then Chandler should start the 2025 season in the MLB rotation. He has become one of the best prospects in all of baseball, and is only continuing to rise in the rankings. Only Skenes may have a higher ceiling than Chandler among this group.

But the Pirates can navigate a month of next year without him. There is probably an outside chance that Chandler can secure a rotation spot in spring training next year. However, he’ll need to be ultra-dominant, similar to what Jones was last year, to earn it. Chandler certainly has the stuff to do it; we’ll just have to wait and see if he can do it.

But, if the Pirates feel the extra year of control is more valuable than Chandler starting the year in the rotation, they’ll be just fine by giving Ortiz, Falter, Burrows, or Ashcraft starts during April next season.