Are these two potential breakouts the real deal for the Pittsburgh Pirates?

The Pittsburgh Pirates’ offense is starting to heat up. After struggling for the first month and a half of the season, they have scored the ninth most runs among all teams since mid-May. Part of the reason they’ve made strides in the right direction in June is because of two players helping spark the offense: Nick Gonzales and Joey Bart.

Both Gonzales and Bart were early and recent first-round draft picks, with the former being taken seventh overall in 2020 by the Pirates, and the latter being the second overall pick in the 2018 draft by the San Francisco Giants. However, neither had the expectations you’d expect from players taken top ten not all that long ago entering the 2024 campaign. There were clear issues in both players' games that got exposed over the last year or few years, but they’ve looked a lot better to start 2024.

While neither player has produced a large sample size in the majors yet this year, they both have made some significant changes to their game. But are these potential breakouts the real deal or a product of a small sample size?

Should Pirates fans believe in breakouts of Nick Gonzales and Joey Bart?

Nick Gonzales

Nick Gonzales has always been a good hitter in the minor leagues. His wRC+ since arriving in pro baseball, including all minor-league levels, is 136. But there was one weakness in Gonzales’ game that got exposed massively last year when he was promoted to the majors, and that was his ability to hit off-speed and breaking stuff. His whiff rate against non-fastball pitches was 39.5%. Overall, he had just a .616 OPS, .268 wOBA, and 64 wRC+ in the bigs last year.

But in 65 plate appearances this season, Gonzales is batting .286/.359/.482. He already has five walks, compared to six last year, but in 59 fewer plate appearances. He is hitting for a lot more power and has two home runs, the same amount he hit last season. This all comes to a .361 wOBA and 134 wRC+, which is very similar to his wRC+ throughout the minor leagues.

A big thing that Gonzales has worked on is making more contact. His strikeout rate is only 21.5%, but the same pitches that gave him trouble last year aren’t giving him nearly as many problems this season. Gonzales’ whiff rate on offspeed and breaking stuff is down by nearly 10%, clocking in at 30%. That’s about the league average, as the rest of the league swings and misses at the same pitches 30.6% of the time.

Along with making more contact, he’s making significantly harder contact. His exit velocity and barrel rate against off-speed/breaking stuff are 89.6 MPH and 16%, respectively. The league average in both is 87.2 MPH and 6.8%. The results haven’t been great, with a .217 wOBA against these pitches, but given he’s making both a lot more contact, quality contact and has a .305 xwOBA when facing off-speed/breaking, there’s a good chance he improves.

Another massive improvement is how often Gonzales is making contact out of the zone. While he’s swinging outside the zone more, he’s managed to make contact 52.4% of the time. That’s a 10.4% uptick from last year. He’s been able to find a balance of making contact and making quality contact, as his exit velocity and barrel rate are up to 91.2 MPH and 15.9%.

So, is this the real Nick Gonzales? I’d lean toward yes. Gonzales has a .375 xwOBA, which is very close to his .361 wOBA. His xBA of .269 is slightly lower than his current batting average, but his xSLG% is .530, and the improvements he’s made are only going to help. Being able to make more contact vs non-fastballs, along with making good contact against the same pitches, can go a long way, especially considering how good he's performed against heaters. At the very least, I’d expect him to still be a good, solidly above-average hitter when the dust settles.