Baseball Prospectus Projects Pittsburgh Pirates to finish last in NL Central

2024 PECOTA's projections have been released, and they paint a grim picture for the Pittsburgh Pirates

On Tuesday, Baseball Prospectus's 2024 PECOTA projections were released for the upcoming season and they are not kind for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The PECOTA projections have the Pirates finishing fifth in the NL Central at 73-89 overall. The simulation also has the St. Louis Cardinals winning the Central with an 85.5-76.5 record, five games above the Chicago Cubs who have a projected record of 80.2-81.8.

The Milwaukee Brewers who recently traded away ace Corbin Burnes are projected to finish No. 3 at 78.8-83.2 while the Cincinnati Reds are expected to also finish below .500 at 78.3-83.7.

The Pirates projected record of 73-89 is the third worst projected record in the National League only behind the Washington Nationals (57.9 - 104.1) and Colorado Rockies (58.0 - 104.0). It also ranks as the fifth worst in all of baseball with the Chicago White Sox (65.5 - 96.5) and Oakland Athletics (64.8 - 97.2) both expected to finish worse than the Pirates.

That being said, not all hope is lost. The projections give the Pirates a 4.8% chance to make the playoffs thanks to a 2.6% chance to win a wild card spot and a 2.2% chance to win the NL Central. They also have a 0.1% chance to win the World Series.

The Pirates pitchers and catchers will report to Spring Training on February 13 with work outs beginning one day later on Valentine's Day. The rest of the Pirates are expected to be in camp in time for the team's first official full-squad workout on February 19. The Pirates' first Spring Training game is scheduled for February 24 against the Minnesota Twins at 1:05 p.m.