The best rotation the Pittsburgh Pirates can have in the second half of the season

Bailey Falter

When the Pirates broke camp with Bailey Falter in their rotation, many were concerned. He didn’t pitch well in 2023 and had struggled mightily in spring training. Then, he proceeded to allow six earned runs on two home runs, including a grand slam, against the Miami Marlins during his first game of the year. However, since then, Falter has turned things around dramatically and has proven to be a solid pitcher.

His last 86.1 innings have yielded a 3.65 ERA, 4.16 FIP, and 1.16 WHIP. The southpaw has only walked 7.2% of batters faced, but has a poor 17.2% strikeout rate and a HR/9 of only 1.04. He’s also given up some hard contact with a 90.4 MPH exit velocity and 9.2% barrel rate, but he’s avoided any huge blow-ups since that first game of the season.

Some will argue he is getting lucky, and that’s a fair criticism. He has a 4.76 SIERA, 4.60 xFIP, and a .259 batting average on balls in play despite a mediocre exit velo and barrel rate. There are pitchers who can over-perform their underlying numbers, so we’ll just have to see if Falter can continue to do so once he is activated from the Injured List.

Even if Falter doesn’t continue to pitch at an extremely high level, if he can at least maintain a league-average ERA, he’ll be more than good enough to be the Pirates’ sixth-best starting pitcher. Falter has been a nice surprise and has been a key cog in the Pirates’ rotation in the first half of the season. Let’s hope he can be a solid pitcher down the stretch.