The best rotation the Pittsburgh Pirates can have in the second half of the season

The Pittsburgh Pirates are having a solid season. Many of their wins have come off the backs of their starting rotation. They have one of if not the best starter in baseball right now, and plenty of depth behind him. Once guys start coming off the Injured List, this already deep and formidable group will become even better. But what is the best five the Pirates can put out there during the second half of this year?

This is based on a few factors, specifically the talent in the system and the likelihood of who receives the ball moving forward. The Pirates might have some good pitchers at Altoona, but consider the likelihood they’d get the call straight from Double-A to the majors, especially with the depth the Pirates have.

Now the Pirates have a ton of starting pitching options. With how they have balanced the workloads of young pitchers this year, the best rotation down the stretch would be a six-man unit. This is not only because of the workload balancing they have done, but because the Pirates have six quality starting pitchers with more depth they could turn to if need be.

Ideal Pirates Rotation for Rest of 2024 MLB Season

Paul Skenes

Duh, who else would be the best pitcher in the Pirates’ starting rotation in the second half of the year? Paul Skenes not only is a prime Rookie of the Year candidate, but if he continues to pitch anything like he has so far, he could be the Pirates’ first Cy Young winner since 1990 when Doug Drabek took home the award.

Skenes has been unstoppable since his debut. Entering the break, he pitched 66.1 innings with a 1.90 ERA, 2.57 FIP, and 0.92 WHIP. Skenes ranks top five in baseball in each of these three statistics since his debut. His 34.9% strikeout rate is the second-best, while his 6.85 K:BB ratio is the third best in baseball. Skenes and Garrett Crochet from the White Sox are the only pitches with a strikeout rate over 30% with a walk rate under 6%, with Skenes clocking in at 5.1%.

The only thing Skenes hasn’t been elite at is limiting home runs. His 0.92 HR/9 is only above league average instead of in the top five. Even then, it’s not like Skenes is getting knocked around the yard and getting lucky with fly balls. He has just a 6% barrel rate, which is well above the league-average rate.

Paul Skenes throws a 100 MPH fastball with a mid-90s splinker, and possesses the precision of a command pitcher. He’s a bonafide ace. He’s been even better than what many were likely expecting when the Pirates took him first overall. 

Mitch Keller

Mitch Keller stumbled out of the gates to 2024. At the end of April, he had a 5.18 ERA, 4.18 FIP, and 1.48 WHIP. But Keller immediately put things back on track. He then pitched a complete game during his first start in May and has not looked back, looking like an All-Star right-hander since.

He has pitched 74.1 frames with a 2.54 ERA, 3.57 FIP, and 1.13 WHIP. Keller has not struck out a ton of batters and has a 21.2% K%, about 1% worse than average, but he’s limited walks with a 4.8% BB%. He is currently one of only 12 qualified starters with a sub-5% BB% since the start of May. Keller also owns an above-average 0.85 HR/9 during this stretch.

His ability to avoid home runs has been fueled by a strong ability to limit hard contact. Keller has just an 86.9 MPH exit velocity and 5.4% barrel rate since he started to heat up in May. These marks both rank top five among qualified pitchers since the start of May.

Keller has established himself as a quality veteran right-handed starting pitcher. His extension will keep him around for what should be his best years, and he’s done great now that he’s gotten some protection in the rotation alongside Skenes, Jared Jones, and now another pitcher we will talk about later on.

Jared Jones

There’s a reason why fans are saying the Pirates are now a pitching factory. Not only do they have a ton of top prospects performing well in the minor leagues, but they also have two young flamethrowers performing well in the bigs. Of course, one is Paul Skenes, but the other is Jared Jones. Jones entered the year as one of the Bucs’ best prospects and has lived up to his potential thus far.

Jones has tossed 91 innings, working to a 3.56 ERA, 3.74 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP. The right-hander has improved his control season after season, but has taken a huge leap forward this year. He has just a 7.3% walk rate, which makes his already above-average 26.4% K% look even better. Unfortunately, Jones has been home run prone, allowing 1.19 HR/9.

Jones has gotten hit hard at times. He has an 89.4 MPH exit velocity and a 9.9% barrel rate. His barrel rate is tied for the worst among rookie pitchers with at least 60 frames this season, alongside San Francisco Giants lefty Kyle Harrison and Arizona Diamondbacks youngster Slade Cecconi.

Jared Jones and Paul Skenes have been a dynamic duo at the top of the Pirates’ rotation. It’s been fun to watch both of them blow hitters away with powerful stuff. Once they get Jones back from injury, this rotation will look even better than it has already. 

Marco Gonzales

The Pirates acquired Marco Gonzales from the Atlanta Braves to help solidify what was then a shallow rotation. While Gonzales has been effective when he's taken the mound, he also missed nearly the entire first half of the 2024 campaign. Gonzales will look to continue turning in quality starts for the Pirates as we head into the home stretch of the season.

The veteran lefty has only pitched 26.2 innings, but they have been a good 26.2 innings. Gonzales has just a 2.70 ERA, 2.45 FIP, and 1.28 WHIP. He is a strong control pitcher and has only allowed 5.5% of his opponents to reach via free pass. His 17.3% K% is also the best he’s put up since 2021. Gonzales has been great at limiting home runs, with an 0.34 HR/9 rate, which is currently a single-season career best. Hopefully, it survives the small sample size.

Gonzales has been atypically hit hard. He has a 90 MPH exit velocity and a 9.4% barrel rate. His career exit velo and barrel rate are 88 MPH and 7%, respectively. Still, this is still a small sample size, and we are looking at less than 30 innings pitched. Gonzales has typically been good at limiting hard contact throughout his career.

But can Gonzales continue to outperform his underlying numbers? We’ll see, but his history tells us he can. Since 2018, he has a 3.97 ERA, but a 4.30 FIP, 4.65 xFIP and 4.67 SIERA. It’s not like he’s over-performing for the first time in his career. He has the 12th-largest gap between his ERA and FIP since ‘18. With that, it shouldn’t be a huge concern if he continues to perform well despite mediocre ERA estimators.

Luis Ortiz

Luis Ortiz made a statement when he made his debut in late 2022. Many were hoping he could take another step forward in 2023 and secure himself a rotation spot, but that didn’t happen. Instead, Ortiz struggled mightily, posting a 4.78 ERA, 5.57 FIP, and 1.70 WHIP. However, Ortiz’s sophomore season has been even better than what many were expecting even last year.

Ortiz has mostly pitched out of long relief this year, starting four of his 26 appearances. In that time, he has pitched 73.2 innings, working to a strong 2.57 ERA, 3.10 FIP, and 1.11 WHIP. Although he hasn’t struck out many batters, sporting a 17% K%, he also hasn’t allowed many walks either, with a 7% BB%. Ortiz has been immune to home runs, only posting a 0.37 HR/9 rate. Ortiz has been about average in limiting hard contact, with an 88.6 MPH exit velocity and 7.9% barrel rate.

Somehow, Ortiz has proven to be an even better starter than a reliever. He’s pitched 24.2 innings coming out of the rotation, allowing two earned runs and a trio of walks, and has struck out 19 batters. Opponents have a .174 batting average and .412 OPS against him. Since the start of June, he’s been next to untouchable. He has just a 2.09 ERA, 2.55 FIP, and 1.02 WHIP with a 21.1% K% and 3% walk rate.

Ortiz has arguably been the most valuable pitcher on the Pirates’ roster. He’s pitched as a long reliever, he’s seen time in higher leverage, and now he’s stepped it up big time when there have been some injuries around him. He’s finally taking that leap forward many were expecting and has been one of the most important pitchers for the Bucs.

Bailey Falter

When the Pirates broke camp with Bailey Falter in their rotation, many were concerned. He didn’t pitch well in 2023 and had struggled mightily in spring training. Then, he proceeded to allow six earned runs on two home runs, including a grand slam, against the Miami Marlins during his first game of the year. However, since then, Falter has turned things around dramatically and has proven to be a solid pitcher.

His last 86.1 innings have yielded a 3.65 ERA, 4.16 FIP, and 1.16 WHIP. The southpaw has only walked 7.2% of batters faced, but has a poor 17.2% strikeout rate and a HR/9 of only 1.04. He’s also given up some hard contact with a 90.4 MPH exit velocity and 9.2% barrel rate, but he’s avoided any huge blow-ups since that first game of the season.

Some will argue he is getting lucky, and that’s a fair criticism. He has a 4.76 SIERA, 4.60 xFIP, and a .259 batting average on balls in play despite a mediocre exit velo and barrel rate. There are pitchers who can over-perform their underlying numbers, so we’ll just have to see if Falter can continue to do so once he is activated from the Injured List.

Even if Falter doesn’t continue to pitch at an extremely high level, if he can at least maintain a league-average ERA, he’ll be more than good enough to be the Pirates’ sixth-best starting pitcher. Falter has been a nice surprise and has been a key cog in the Pirates’ rotation in the first half of the season. Let’s hope he can be a solid pitcher down the stretch.