Brewers vs. Pirates prediction and odds for Tuesday, Sept. 5 (Luck Runs Out)

The Pirates are fourth in the NL Central, 12.5 games behind Milwaukee and seven games behind third place Cincinnati.
Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Andre Jackson (41)
Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Andre Jackson (41) / Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

All season long the Milwaukee Brewers have had the Pittsburgh Pirates number, but yesterday the Pirates responded in Game 1 of this three game set with a 4-2 win against Corbin Burnes and the Brew Crew. The Pirates got homers from Jack Suwinski and Ke’Bryan Hayes to get to 64-74 on the season and drop Milwaukee to 76-61, shrinking their NL Central lead to 2.5 games over Chicago.

Tonight in Pittsburgh, the Brewers will go with Brandon Woodruff against Andre Jackson. Woodruff is 3-1 in seven starts with a 2.70 ERA and Jackson is 1-1 in 13 games with a 4.46 ERA. This will be Jackson’s fourth start. 

The Brewers have lost two straight, but are favored on the road tonight. Whichever side you like in this matchup, bet it with the FanDuel Sportsbook and their great promo. Just click the link below, sign up, deposit $5, place your first bet on this NL Central matchup, then collect $200 in bonus bets win or lose. Plus you’ll get $100 off NFL Sunday Ticket. 

Now, we can take a look at the odds. 

Brewers vs. Pirates odds, run line and total

Brewers vs. Pirates prediction and pick

Since joining the Pirates, Andre Jackson has been pretty impressive. He struck out seven over 5.2 innings against the Royals last time out, but his strikeout rate is just far too low for him to really have success. He’s actually just been very lucky in his few starts and outings with Pittsburgh and it’s going to regress big time.

Jackson has a BABIP of .217 since joining the Pirates. That’s with a hard hit rate of 45.9% which is seventh percentile. So the ball is getting hit very hard, just right at his fielders, which is not sustainable at all. He’s benefiting from the randomness of pitching, but has an expected batting average of .273 which is 13th percentile. There’s still a reason why the Dodgers got rid of him, so don’t get excited. 

Brandon Woodruff on the other side actually has the strikeout rate to have big time success and obviously has had big time success before. However, since returning this year after his two starts in April he has allowed six homers in five starts in August. The Pirates don’t have a ton of power, but Jack Suwinski has found his stroke again and Ke’Bryan Hayes is slugging .579 since the start of August. 

This will be a high scoring affair and the luck will run out for Andre Jackson who will soon be back in the bullpen and maybe back on waivers. 

Follow all Josh Yourish’s bets HERE

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change