Comparing the Pittsburgh Pirates' current collapse to 2011 and 2012

The 2024 Pittsburgh Pirates looked like they were charging into August with a head of steam. After winning the series against the Houston Astros and being buyers at the trade deadline for the first time since 2018, the Pirates were just two games out of a Wild Card, six out of the division, and had a 55-53 record. But they've struggled so far, to say the least. Following another difficult series with the Dodgers, they have only won one game in August and are on a seven-game losing streak. 

If you're not too young, then this certainly isn't the first late-season collapse you have (unfortunately) experienced the Pirates going through after heading into August with playoff aspirations. One of the two most prominent disasters in recent Pirates history came in 2011. Any Pirates fan that watched that team can tell you the exact game when the season started to crumble.

It was on July 26: the Pirates entered that day 53-47. They were tied with the St. Louis Cardinals for the division lead and were playing a tough foe in the Atlanta Braves, sporting a 60-44 record. The Pirates would go on to play a six-and-a-half-hour game that lasted 19 innings, and not only did Pittsburgh lose, but it was in the most brutal way possible.

In the bottom of the 19th, with one out, reliever Scott Proctor came to the plate with the winning run on third base and one out. He hit a ground ball to third baseman Pedro Alvarez. Alvarez fired home to catcher Michael McKenry, with the throw beating Julio Lugo by a mile, and what should have been a bang-bang play to get the second out of the inning ended up somehow being the winning run. Jerry Meals, despite Lugo clearly being out, called the runner safe. This was prior to MLB implementing replay, so the game would come to an abrupt and unsatisfying end. Even based on Lugo's body language and actions after the call, it was clear even he thought he was out.

Either way, this ignited a horrific losing streak for the Pirates. They would go on to have a 19-42 record for the rest of the year, finishing 72-90. A team that was tied for the division lead would end up 24 games behind in the standings. This, dreadfully, was only the first of two collapses in a row for the Pirates.

The very next year, the Pirates endured yet another late-season falloff. Once again, the Pirates entered August in a very good place. They were 59-44, just three games out of the division, and had possession of the second Wild Card spot, holding a marginal lead of four games over the St. Louis Cardinals.

Although there wasn't a defining moment of the season like in 2011, the Pirates just ran out of steam in August and especially in September. They would go on to play 20-39 ball the rest of the way. This included the month of September, where they had a 9-22 record, which tied them with the last place Boston Red Sox for the most losses in the final month of the 2012 season. The Pirates would end up at 79-83, 18 games out of the National League Central lead and nine games out of the Wild Card.

Comparing the three Pirates teams

The 2024 team definitely has the best rotation of the three clubs. Neither the 2011 or 2012 team had a single starter with an ERA+ of 110 or greater. The current Pirates team has three, along with Bailey Falter at 107, which would have been the second-best mark in the '11 rotation and tied with A.J. Burnett in 2012 for the best on the team.

The 2012 team definitely had the best bullpen. They combined for a 3.36 ERA, 3.73 FIP, and 1.26 WHIP, and all three stats are the best among any of the three years from the Pirates' recent history. They had three relievers with 60+ appearances and an ERA under 3.00. Tony Watson also appeared in 68 games and had a 3.38 ERA.

Neither of the three teams rank particularly well offensively. None had an OPS above .700, and all had a wRC+ that ranged between 87 and 91. 2012 is the best performing roster, by default. They had the best OPS, wOBA, and wRC+, but the differences are marginal at best and inconsequential at worst. Plus, you could say most of that difference was made up by Andrew McCutchen's breakout.

But defensively, the 2024 team is the best. In 2011, the Pirates had -40 defensive runs saved, a -3.5 UZR/150, and -25.6 framing runs. 2012 was even worse; Pittsburgh sported a collective -42 DRS, a -4.4 UZR/150, and -32.2 framing runs. The Pirates this year have -12 DRS, a -0.6 UZR/150, and +1.6 framing runs. The season isn't over yet, but the Pirates would have to almost have to actively try to get to -40 DRS this year. 

The most heartbreaking downfall is up for your own interpretation. Many might say 2011 because of how the collapse started. Others may say this year because of how good the pitching has been, including a generational performance like the league has never seen before by a rookie in Paul Skenes. For some, it might be 2012 because of Andrew McCutchen's MVP-caliber breakout season being wasted.

Either way, the one thing all Pirate fans can agree upon is that their current slide is painful. There will be an end at some point, but by the time it's over, we could be looking at a similar fate for the 2024 team, evoking decade-old collapses. For the third time in the last 15 years, the Pirates headed into the home stretch of the season with what looked like a potential playoff push, only to lose steam and fall off a cliff in the final two months. 

But, to end on a more positive note, after these two collapses in 2011 and 2012, the Pirates would then go on to have a 94-68 record and make the Postseason for the first time since the 1992 season. Instead of faltering down the line, they played above .500 ball and made the Wild Card. Hopefully, after a huge collapse in 2024, the 2025 Pirates will be bestowed a fate more akin to the 2013 team.