Cubs vs. Pirates prediction and odds for Saturday, Aug. 26 (Pittsburgh undervalued)

The Pirates are a great home underdog bet on Saturday night.
Aug 24, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Ji Hwan Bae (3) hits
Aug 24, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; Pittsburgh Pirates center fielder Ji Hwan Bae (3) hits / Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports

The Pirates and Cubs have split the first two of four against one another in NL Central action, how should we bet this nationally televised matchup?

The Cubs are in a heated NL wild card race and will count on Javier Assad to keep the team in prime position while the Pirates will look to play spoiler behind the arm of opener Chris Selby, who has limited big league experience.

Can Selby hold down a Cubs lineup before passing the ball over to the rest of the bullpen? Either way, win or lose for the Buccos, you must take advantage of this DraftKings promo!

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Cubs vs. Pirates odds, run line and total

Cubs vs. Pirates prediction and pick

This is a pure fade of Assad, who has some of the most concerning underlying metrics in baseball relative to his current form. The right hander has a strong ERA of 3.13 across 23 appearances, five of which have been starts. He's been a utility man for this Chicago rotation, starting in his last four appearances, and the numbers look strong on the surface. Assad hasn't allowed more than two earned runs in those four starts.

However, I believe Assad is ripe for regression, considering his xERA is 4.67, centered around the fact that he has stranded 84% of runners on base this season. Assad is not a power pitch whatsoever, striking out fewer than seven batters per nine innings and walking more than three.

Selby has a ton of question marks, he's only made seven appearances in the big leagues as a rookie, but I can't pass up the home underdog against a pitcher with these many red flags that scream negative regression.

Take the Pirates at home on Saturday night.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Track Reed's bets here!