Demoted Pirates outfielder could be 2025 wild card after turbulent season

Pittsburgh Pirates outfielder Jack Suwinski was projected to play a big role in the 2024 lineup. The slugger was coming off a season where he posted a quality .224/.339/.454 triple-slash, .341 wOBA, and 112 wRC+. Suwinski struck out a ton with a 32.2% K%, but he drew walks at a 14% rate, the ninth-highest mark among National Leaguers. He was one of the best power-hitting outfielders in the NL as well. He had the eighth-most home runs (26 dingers) and the fifth-best isolated slugging percentage (.230) last season among his NL outfield peers (min. 500 plate appearances).

But this year, Suwinski went from a potential middle-of-the-order, 25+ homer threat to a liability. He hit just .182/.264/.324 with a .259 wOBA and 62 wRC+. While Suwinski cut his K% down below 30% to 28.5%, he hit for far less power, socking just nine homers in 277 plate appearances while carrying a .142 isolated slugging percentage. Suwinski also walked far less often, with a diminishing 9.7% walk rate. But where did it all go wrong for Suwinski, and is there a way he can put himself back on track for 2025?

The big issue for Suwinski was a huge change in approach. For the first month and a half of the year, Suwinski was trying to hit more like a contact hitter. Suwinski was swinging outside the zone much more frequently, 26.5% of the time across his first 138 plate appearances. In 2023, he only swung outside the zone 17.6% of the time. He seemed to prioritize the quantity of contact, upping his overall contact rate to 79% compared to only 71.9% in 2023, but this came at the cost of his ability to make good contact. Suwinski had just an 88.4 MPH exit velocity and 6.6% barrel rate through the first month and a half of the 2024 season. Last year, he had a 90.5 MPH exit velo and a 15.7% barrel rate. His wRC+ fell to just 50, an enormous drop from what he did in 2023.

This sort of approach does not work with Suwinski's swing. His average swing length and swing speed in 2024 are 7.3 feet and 73.3 MPH, respectively. That's similar to players like Brandon Nimmo, Shea Langeliers, Ryan McMahon, and Anthony Santander, all of whom are known for hitting home runs more than hitting for contact. Contact-focused hitters like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Steven Kwan, Nolan Schanuel, Jake McCarthy, Donovan Solano, and Luis Arraez all have swing speeds under 70 MPH, and swing lengths no greater than seven feet.

Pirates' Jack Suwinski attempted to make midseason changes

Suwinski seemingly tried to course correct midseason, swinging outside the zone much less frequently (19.7%) and sacrificing the amount of contact (72.5% contact rate) for better quality of contact (89.7 MPH, 11.4% barrel rate) over his next 139 plate appearances. It led to better results, increasing his wRC+ to a still subpar 74, and still a very far cry from 2023.

It's not as if Suwinski was all of a sudden seeing a ton of pitches outside the zone. 53.7% of the pitches he saw were in the zone, which is an uptick from 51.4% the year prior. It's also not as if pitchers all of a sudden started throwing to him differently. He saw the same pitches at about the same frequency throughout this stretch as he did last year. Suwinski did see more pitches at the top of the zone (compared to 2023), but his wOBA in the zone's top three thirds, according to Baseball Savant, was above .370 in each third the year prior. He should've still excelled in this area.

Whether this change in approach was a suggestion by the Pirates' hitting coaching or of Suwinki's own volition is unknown. However, to make a drastic change in approach, then return to his old approach, all within a few months, is a recipe for disaster. It's no wonder why Suwinski struggled. The question now becomes if he can revert to his old approach and succeed.

Suwinski's poor performance eventually led to him getting demoted to Triple-A. While it may have taken a while, it looks like he's righted the ship and has been looking much better as of recently for Indianapolis. Over his last 105 plate appearances (about a month's worth of playing time), Suwinski is batting .330/.381/.638 with a .428 wOBA and 154 wRC+. Neither his 7.6% walk rate, nor his 29.5% strikeout rate, are great, but the power has been on full display. He has blasted six home runs and has an isolated slugging percentage above .300 at .309.

Sure, Suwinski has a batting average on balls in play well over .400 at .424, and it's unlikely he can sustain that over a larger sample size. But even if/when he regresses in the BABIP department, a lot of numbers suggest he could still be very good. Suwinski is once again making very impressive contact. His average exit velocity has clocked in at 92.6 MPH, while his barrel rate is standing at 16.9%. Those marks rank fifth and second among Triple-A batters over the last month (min. 100 plate appearances). Suwinski's expected numbers are also very good, as his xSLG% is still above .500 at .511, and his xwOBA sits at .342.

The best version of Suwinski is the one that fully embraces both his strengths and weaknesses, and that might be the version of him we are seeing at Triple-A right now. He's not a contact hitter. He is never going to hit for average, and he's always going to strike out at a high rate, which is okay. He has a good eye that will allow him to post a solid OBP, and has the power to hit a decent amount of home runs. 

It may have taken a while, but Suwinski looks more like his 2023 self than what he was doing during the first month and a half of 2024. If it wasn't broken, then the Pirates shouldn't have tried to fix it. Let Suwinski be a three-true-outcomes sort of hitter, and you'll get 25-30 home runs and an .800 OPS batter.