If the Pirates could have only played non-playoff teams last year, they might have made the playoffs. Against non-playoff teams last year, the Pirates had a 54-44 record. Against playoff teams, however, their record was 22 wins and 42 losses. Overall, the Pirates finished 10 games under .500. Those 64 games against playoff teams are the reason that the 2023 version of the Pirates ended up like most of the past 44 seasons; i.e., with a losing record.
Much has been written about the Pirates hot start in 2023. On April 30, they had a record of 20-9. But in that time, they had played only six games against eventual playoff teams, those being three each against Houston and Los Angeles. And those six games were all at the friendly confines of PNC Park. They split those 6 games at 3-3. The bottom then fell out when they had 18 games against playoff teams in May, going 4-14 in those games.
That is why the victories against the Orioles in the opening homestand were so encouraging. It was evidence that this 2024 version of the Pirates could actually defeat a playoff-caliber team.
But those Orioles games were at home, too. This series against the Phillies is on the road, where the Pirates have not fared well. Against those playoff teams on the road last year, the Pirates had 9 wins and 25 losses. A .265 win percentage, which is even worse than the Oakland A’s win percentage last year.
So when the Phillies dispatched the Pirates easily on Thursday by a score of 5-1, I thought, “Uh oh. Here we go again.”
To be sure, that Ranger Suarez guy, the Phillies starting pitcher last night, is pretty good. And the Phillies lineup--with all that power--they’re pretty good too. And the Phillies are not half bad in the field either. The Phillies look like a pretty good baseball team. And in beating the Pirates 5 to 1, they made the Pirates look like, well, the Pirates of old. And as I watched this game play out, it made me wish that this was a three-game series instead of a four-game series, because, this series may not go well for the Pirates. It sure has that look and feel. The Pirates are on the road against a playoff contender. What could possibly go wrong?
Jared Jones pitched well again. Like his last outing, there were a lot of swings and misses. A lot of strikeouts. But also two home runs. And like the home opener, the home runs proved to be decisive.
In listening to the Pirates announcers poo-poo the homers that Jones had given up—they’re just solo homers, they argued-- I was reminded of an NFL coach’s post-game comments on a game they had just lost to the Detroit Lions and their great running back, Barry Sanders. Said the the NFL Coach. “Well, except for those two 60-yard touchdown runs, we kept Barry Sanders bottled up the whole game.” And except for those two home runs that Jones gave up, he bottled up those Phillies hitters all night.
Unfortunately for Jones, he keeps being opposed by some pretty good pitchers. In the home opener, it was Grayson Rodriquez who took care of the Pirates. Yesterday, it was Ranger Suarez. He pitched six scoreless innings, giving up only 2 hits and striking out 8.
So, whenever there is a Pirates loss, I quickly go to the minor league teams to see if I can find some baseball happiness there.
In so doing last night, I found that Indianapolis had been rained out. Altoona had been rained out. Greensboro had opened up a huge lead in its game, but it was suspended because of rain. And Bradenton got walloped. How, I wondered, did everybody on the East Coast of the country get rained out except for the Pirates and Phillies? And given the outcome of the contest, I wished it had been rained out.
But there are three more games against these Phillies on the road. And if we want evidence that this 2024 version of the Pirates is for real, then the Pirates will need to figure out a way to win a couple of these road games against good teams.