Diary of a long-suffering Pirates Fan: If you cannot believe in your team during Spring, when can you?

It’s the most common article in all of baseball.  The obligatory MLB pre-season prediction think piece.  But nowadays with new-fangled statistics and on-line betting forums, these prediction pieces are more analytical, more numbers-focused, and ho-hum more predictable.  Is there any media outlet not predicting that either the Dodgers, Braves, or Astros will win the World Series?  And is there any media outlet not predicting that the A’s, Pirates, and Nationals to finish last?  If you want to read that kind of think piece, you’ve come to the wrong place.  For me, it’s March.  And hope springs eternal.  Last year’s numbers tell last year’s stories; not this year’s.  And experts can tell me until their blue in the face that the Pirates will finish last.  But, I’m here to tell you.  This year, they’re wrong.  This year the Pirates are going to the World Series.  You can count on it just like Charlie Brown can count on Lucy letting him kick the football this year.

I’m often asked how I manage to hang in there year after year with the Pirates, knowing in your heart of hearts, that the baseball season is not likely to turn out well.  And the answer to that is:  “It’s  complicated.”  It’s a combination of unjust optimism, my love of the sport, and an unnatural and unhealthy desire to slow down to see the car wreck on the side of the road that is the Pirates that keeps me watching.

But it is also a creative thinking exercise I do every Spring where I completely and utterly buy into what the Pirates are selling.  It’s an exercise where I carefully consider the additions and subtractions to the Pirates roster the likely call-ups from the minors during the course of the season, and where there will be improvements over last year, and then armed with that information and the pre-season propaganda that the Pirates try to feed us every off-season (which basically can be summed up as “wait till next year,”), I concoct in my mind the Pirates path to the world series. Mind you, since 1980 the path I dream about every year is a path that never gets taken. It is not only the path not taken, it is a path, that in most years, never even exists.  But every spring I will my way to believing that a mythical path does exist and all it takes is for the Pirates to find the path and then to follow it to championship glory.

This is that 2024 path to world series glory for the Pirates.

PART ONE:  Pirates hitting will be improved

The Pirates finished near the bottom in run production last year.  22nd to be exact.  In a game where scoring runs is, you know, required for winning, a 22nd-place finish is not optimal.  When one considers that the Pirates had near bottom-of-the-league production from shortstop, 2nd base, catcher, and right field, it’s a wonder that they were able to produce 76 wins.

But things will be different this year.  Last year there was no O’Neil Cruz.  This year there will be.  Last year Henry Davis was hurt.  This year he isn’t.  Last year, there was no Jared Triolo for most of the year.  This year there will be.  Last year right field and 2nd base were a revolving door of call-ups and tryouts and who has a hot bat. But having weeded out last year’s nonproducers, both right field and 2nd base should see an increase in production. In short, the Pirates have upgraded each of the positions that underperformed last year.

Including First base.  Rowdy Tellez has been brought into platoon with Connor Joe at first base.  One of the themes of my yearly world series prognostications is the “if so and so can recapture the magic that once made him successful, then the Pirates will have found a diamond in the rough” theory.  Over the course of the Nutting Era, the Pirates have signed several such players.  A few have actually panned out, but most don’t. 

The poster child this year for that is Rowdy Tellez.  Two years ago Tellez hit 35 homers for Milwaukee.  Last year, due in part to injuries, his production fell to 13 homers.  The diminished 2023 production made Tellez affordable for the Pirates.  Most opinion pieces on this signing begin with the word, “If.”  If Rowdy Tellez can recapture his 2022 performance, Pirates fans will be seeing balls launched over the Clemente Wall with regularity.  The operative word is “If.”  But, in my prediction pieces, I prefer the word, “When.”  Because if you’re going to predict the Pirates are going to the World Series, there is no room for “If.”  For a world series to happen, Rowdy Tellez has to hit bombs.  Lots of them.  And he is going to. 

Some of the best productions from last year’s team came from Hayes, Reynolds, and Suwinski.  The good news for Pirates fans is that none of those three can be said to have hit their ceilings.  On the contrary, Hayes, who finished 2023 on a tear, is going to pick up right where he left off last year.  And Reynolds, who performed to the norm last year without much protection around him in the lineup, will now have the added protection of Cruz in front and a much-improved Hayes behind him in the batting order, which should only help Reynold’s production.  The top three hitters in the Pirates lineup should be formidable.

As for Suwinski.  He’s just getting started.  He has hit more home runs in his first two seasons than did Clemente, Stargell, Parker, Bay, or even Barry Bonds in their respective first two years in the majors.  After a mid-year slump, Suwinski finished strong in September.  And while he doesn’t seem to be able to hit lefties very well, who cares if he is able to mash right-handers? A platoon can be found.  Plus, did you see the way Suwinski is able to draw walks last year?  He is going to be an on-base machine.

Last year the Pirates finished 28th in the league in homeruns.  But with the additions of Cruz, Tellez, and a healthy Henry Davis to the lineup and the potential improved production from Hays, Reynolds, and Suwinski, the Pirates should shoot up the HR leader board this year.

Perhaps the best proof of how much this team’s lineup will be improved is to consider who from last year’s team is no longer on the roster:  Tucipita Marcano, Rodolfo Castro, Alfonso Rivas, Ji-Man Choi, Mark Mathias, Chris Owings, Vinny Capra, Austin Hedges, and Tyler Heineman are gone.  Replaced by more productive players.    

Did I mention that a healthy Andrew McCutcheon is returning to the Pirates lineup?  And if that guy can recapture the magic that once made him great…….

The beauty of the 2024 version of the Pirates is that the baseball world is not going to see this coming. It’s easy to predict and expect the Pirates to have near bottom-of-the-league run production because that’s what they seemingly do every year.  But 2024 is going to be different.  The Pirates will run out a solid lineup from top to bottom every night.  A lineup that will be able to produce runs from the top of the lineup right down to the number 9 hitter.  It is going to be a pleasant change from what we typically see.

PART TWO:  Pirates starting pitching will be impoved...maybe

The 2023 Pirates were 19-9 last April and in first place.  The Pirates team E.R.A. was sixth in the MLB in April.   In reviewing what went right in April, one only needs to look at the starting pitching.  The starting rotation was Keller, Hill, Oviedo, Velasquez, and Contreras. Contreras won three games in April and looked as if he might emerge as an ace.  Velasquez was equally impressive in April.  Of course, Keller and Oviedo were also strong in April and continued that throughout the season.  But what went right in April is also what went wrong.  The starting pitching fell apart.

Velasquez got hurt.  Contreras and Ortiz lost their effectiveness with both pitchers afflicted with a loss of velocity syndrome.  Unfortunately, there was no help in AAA that could save the day.  Help was called up.  Bido, Priester, Wolf, and Falter all took turns in the rotation with less than stellar results.  But the promise of that April start for the Pirates quickly descended into losing with regularity and another losing season resulted. And most of those losses were due to poor starting pitching.

The loss of Oviedo from the starting rotation due to off season surgery is a major blow to the 2024 edition of the Pirates.  The off-season acquisitions of Marco Gonzalez and Martin Perez have the feel of being a band-aid.  Once again the fortunes of the Pirates seem to be riding on Priester, Ortiz, and/or Contreras recapturing what had made them seem to be top prospects.  Those prospects are what has the national media claiming the Pirates will once again finish in last.  No starting pitching.

And yet the early spring training games are encouraging.  Priester, Ortiz, and even Contreras are showing signs of progress.  If they prove to be the pitchers that the Pirates envisioned them to be in the minors, then the Pirates season will be special.  Did I just use the word “if?”  Let me correct that.  Contreras, Ortiz, and Priester are all going to have great seasons.  It will be night and day from last year.  Velocity will be re-found.  And the baseball world will wonder, “Where did this come from?”

But whether they succeed or not; it doesn’t even matter.  Because, unlike last year, there is a plethora of pitching in the minors waiting to be called up.  There is so much pitching that, come next year, the Pirates may not know what to do with it all.  I would argue that the collection of pitchers stashed in AA and AAA may be the greatest collection of pitchers in Pirates’s history:  Skenes, Chandler, Jones, Solometo, Harrington, Meuth, Ashcraft, Barco, and Burrows.  These are just some of the arms that will deliver victories to the major league clubs in years to come.  And the first of those arms will likely arrive in 2024.